27 March 2008

Bond Rates: Which Way Are They Headed?

Here is a graph of the offered bond rates from First National Bank from 1986 to the end of 2007 (source)

So with the US heading into recession, inflation rates locally heading to record levels and the property market hitting a wall which way do you expect rates to go?

Edit: I changed the graph type to a step graph which is more suitable for interest rates.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nice graph - plenty of upside if you ask me - average of about 17% over that period - looks like a peak at 20% could well be on the cards. That's R 33,000 in interest alone per month on a R2m bond. Ouch.

Anonymous said...

Considering that from 1989 - 2000 we never had interest rates below 14% I'm wondering why the recent move above 14% is now causing people so much pain. My first guess is that people are much more overextended than before.

Anonymous said...

Good point - you could say that for 16 years before 2004 the rates were always higher than 14% (except for a few months in 2002 when they briefly dipped to 13%) - Above 14% is very much the norm. The last 5 years have been the exception rather than the rule

6000 said...

I think they seem to inexoribly be going from left to right. I guess that there's no way to stop this.