10 July 2010

Post World Cup Open Thread

The World Cup is for all intents and purposes over. It's time for the post-partum depression to kick in.

29 June 2010

Buy The Bachelor Pad, Get The Bachelor Car

Here's a 43m2 bachelor apartment for sale in the CBD for only R1 300 000. That's a bit steep for 43m2 right? Well to sweeten the deal the owner will throw in a used Mecedes SLK 350.

I guess he's trying to kill two depreciating assets with one stone....

13 June 2010

Sunday Open Thread

Shooweee... with all the sport on the go I clean forgot the Saturday open thread...

22 May 2010

13 May 2010

Ballinrobe: Take The Fork Out! It's Back!

Much maligned (at least here) development The Ballinrobe in Sea Point seems to be back in action after construction stopped because they violated height restrictions. Sea Point reporter JP writes:

Drove past The Ballinrobe the other day and looks like building is back on. Guess the developers managed enough snot and trane to get City Council to retroactively approve their height restrictions.

This place was supposed to be finised over a year ago and now it looks like they're going to miss t he world cup tourists!


JP also sent a link to an ad from Ballinrobe on Gumtree. Read it and smell the desperation:
The developers are willing to combine Unit 103 and Unit 104 or Unit 104 & Unit 105 – Only possible with a full commitment from YOU!

01 May 2010

Glencairn Heights: 18 Months Later, R290 000 Cheaper

Back in November 2008 this house in Glencairn Heights was on sale for R1 985 000, along with a used Land Rover as an incentive. 18 months later the same house is for sale for R1 695 000, although this time there's no car thrown in to sweeten the deal. I can't tell from the ad if it's still the original seller who couldn't sell the house and is now selling it R290 000 cheaper than they were asking 18 months ago or if it's the person who bought the house back then and now realises they're paying a massive bond and the days of 25% price growth they were pegging everything on are long gone and has decided to get rid of the albatross.

In this market either of those are feasible.

Saturday Open Thread

It's the Saturday open thread.

24 April 2010

Saturday Open Thread - Cheese Edition

Nearly missed posting the open thread... that's what you get when you spend the day eating cheese washed down with copious amounts of Sauvingnon Blanc.

17 April 2010

Ugliest House Ever Built In Cape Town Still For Sale

Who would've thought that the ugliest house ever built in Cape Town is still for sale at the bargain price of R14 500 000. This crime against your eyes has been on sale since at least August 2008. Buying this place will cost you not only a cool 14 bar but also your sense of style and the respect of your friends...

Saturday Open Thread

It's the Saturday Open thread...

10 April 2010

Saturday Open Thread - End of Summer Edition

Folks, I'm calling it - Summer is over. Get ready for the wind and the rain. And an open thread!

24 March 2010

The Rockwell: You Just Lost A Lot of Money

In September 2007 a 1 bed apartment in the Rockwell had an asking price of R1 520 000.

2 1/2 years later a 1 bed apartment in the Rockwell has an asking price of R1 550 000.

I bet that R30 000 in capital appreciation really takes the sting off the R300 000+ in bond payments.

23 March 2010

Your Architecture Is Bad - Crappy SA Architecture Blog

With the mad rush to throw up developments in the last couple of years there has been a rise in just some terrible architecture in South Africa. Luckily Your Architecture Is Bad is on the scene to document these crimes against your eyes. Check it out!

Ballinrobe: Why The Pawpaw Hit The Fan

Seems the developers decided to ignore height restrictions right before the Cape Town City Council decided to start cracking down on such offenders. Here's a comment from a previous thread:

So the developers are Irish and if they finish the building the top floor will contravene their zoning height restriction.

They started building the building too high.

Am pretty sure that the top floor is where all the cream is, so they are faced with some tough decisions...

14 March 2010

Ballinrobe: Stopped Building, Still Selling

So the Ballinrobe stopped building a while ago but that hasn't stopped the developers trying to sell units. I guess the thing is basically built they have to complete it, so keep on selling...

13 March 2010

Saturday Open Thread - Selling Season Wind Down

The summer selling season is winding down. Were sales targets met? Are there more Estate Agent culls on the horizon?

11 March 2010

Defence Minister Stops Paying Bond On Unfinished Home

IOL Reports:

Defence Minister Lindiwe Sisulu stands to lose the luxury Sandton home she owns with her husband after failing to pay bond instalments and R160 000 worth of levies.

The former housing minister and her husband, Professor Rok Ajulu, borrowed almost R2-million to build the Riverclub, north of Joburg, house in 2004. Ajulu believes it's now worth over R3m.

Now the couple will have to launch a legal bid to keep the unit from going under the hammer at a public auction set down for March 23.

The Cape Times has learnt that, due to their bond account falling into arrears, Standard Bank turned to the courts to repossess the property.

27 February 2010

Saturday Open Thread - Eskom

So Eskom will be raising electricity tarriffs 25%. If you're an estate agent do you tell customers this is good for house prices or great for house prices?

20 February 2010

Saturday Open Thread - World Cup Price Gouging

Seen any World Cup Price gouging starting? Best example is SAA: Need to go to Johannesburg from Cape Town for business during the world cup? It's going to cost you R7 280!

18 February 2010

Balllinrobe: Stick A Fork In It... It's Done

Regular Sea Point reader PJ writes:
Construction on the Ballinrobe on High Level Rd looks to have stalled. The site is locked up and trash is piling up behind the gate. Stick a fork in it... it's done. It's now just a giant hulking concrete jumble of boxes visually stinking up High Level Rd.

13 February 2010

Saturday Open Thread: Worst Architecture In Cape town

Where have you seen the worst architecture in Cape Town? In my eyes the reigning champ is still this monstrosity we wrote about back in August 2008:



In terms of an entire suburb, Sunset Beach is just choc-a-bloc full of massive boxes seemingly designed by builders sticking plans of rooms together like Lego. Parklands may be soulless and boring but Sunset Beach is an assault on your eyeballs.

11 February 2010

Rent Vs Buy: Green Point - R1.17m = 0% return

Here's a 2 bed apartment in Green Point on the market for R1 900 000 which attains a monthly gross rental of R7 200. The flat is 62m^2 so R1 900 000 means the cost per m^2 is over R30 000/m^2 so this is in no way a value for money buy.

With a 100% bond the monthly payments are currently R18969/month which means the difference between that and the rental is R-11769 which is over 160% of the gross rental itself!

The bond costs alone are R139 000 which is over 18 months (one and a half years) of rent. Subtract rates/levies, maintenance and vacancy costs and the net rental income is probably closer to R6000 if not lower. Here's the yield graph:



To break even on cashflow with the gross rental requires a deposit of just over 62% of R1.17 million. Even with a 50% deposit you need capital appreciation of 1.44% to not lose any money. Paying for the entire property in cash nets you a return on investment of 4.55%. I think there are transaction accounts out there paying equivalent interest than that.

This block looked familiar and so I went diving off into the archives and found that in January 2008 the rental for a 2 bed apartment in this block was R7 000. In Jan 2010 it's R7 200. That's an annual rental increase of 2.8%, well below inflation. However the asking price in 2008 was only R1 250 000. Me thinks someone needs to sell at R1.9m to avoid losing any money (and hopefully make a profit) from paying in to cover the bond for the past few years. Specuvesting at it's finest.

05 February 2010

Saturday Open Thread

Want to chat about a topic we don't usually cover? Johannesburg? Durban? Anything north of the Boerewors Curtain for that matter?

04 February 2010

Mutual Heights: You Just Lost A Lot Of Money

In Feb 2008, the asking price for a 1 bed loft apartment in Mutual Heights was R825 000.

In Feb 2010, the asking price for a 1 bed loft apartment in Mutual Heights is R750 000.

Rentals In Trouble At The Top End

Just bought a R3 million 2 bed flat and thinking of renting it out for R15000 or so a month?? You might want to reconsider. Business Report writes:

The top end of the residential letting market, with monthly rentals of R12 000 a month or more, is showing signs of financial distress.

Payment trends deteriorated significantly in this rental bracket in the fourth quarter of last year, with the number of tenants who made no payment towards their monthly rental increasing to 21 percent from 12 percent in the previous quarter, according to the latest rental payment monitor compiled by TPN Credit Bureau.

In addition, the percentage of tenants in good standing in the R12 000 plus rental bracket decreased by 8 percentage points to 64 percent between the third and fourth quarters.

01 February 2010

The Edge: You Just Lost A Lot Of Money

In December 2007 the asking price for a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in The Edge was R1 395 000. Two years later and the asking price for a similar apartment is R1 475 000. That works out to an appreciation of about R40 000/year, about 2.86%/year.

If we bought an apartment for R1 395 000 and then decided two years later to sell at R1 475 000 how much money did we make (or lose)?

If an owner had a 100% bond the bond payments over the last two years were about 17300/month (when interest rates were at 14%) to about R14000 today, so let's make it R15000 as an average just to be conservative. Over two years the total bond payments would have been R360 000 with transfer duty another R75 000. Insurance and maintenance is about 1% of purcahse price per year so another R28 000. So we're looking at total input costs of approximately R460 000.

Despite paying in R360 000 in bond payments, you would only have paid off R40 000 on the loan capital (the balance of R320 000 covering the interest so in actual fact you've been renting from the bank for R13 000/month). Take away the estate agency's 6% commission on selling and you'll walk away with R1 386 500. The balance of the bond is R1 355 000, leaving you with a profit of R30 000.

So that's R30 000 in profit from the sale minus R460 00 in bond payments and purchasing costs leaving you with a net loss of R430 000. What an investment. Put my name down for two.

23 January 2010

Saturday Open Thread

It's the Saturday open thread! Want to talk about something we haven't covered? Now is your chance.

22 January 2010

Some Orangerie Gossip

Orangerie Week continues! There's nothing we love more here then a nice piece of skinner (that's gossip for you non-Afrikaans speakers). This from the comments section in an earlier entry on the Orangerie:

I have been told that all the flats on top floors were bought off plan by estate agents, before the public knew about the flats going to be built.


I do hope these agents are making sure that when they show potential buyers around the Orangerie they show them apartments that they don't have a financial interest in.

20 January 2010

The Organgerie: Rent Vs Buy (Again)

Folks it's Orangerie week here on Cape Town Property Bubble, because it's the gift that keeps on giving. For instance here's a 2bed/2bath 157m2 apartment in the Orangerie for rent at R14 000/month. Despite overwhelming demand, five days later the same flat is now available for sale at R3 400 000.

On a 100% bond your monthly payments are R33 944/month, the difference between that and the gross rent being R19 944/month or about R240 000/year. Added to that the bond costs are R275 000, worth about 20 months (1 3/4 years) rent. And that's all for gross rent. Take away levies (which I will bet are not cheap in this block), rates and maintenance and the picture gets even worse.

Here's the yield graph:



To break even on cash flow you need to put down just under R2 000 000. I repeat to not lose ANY money at all you need to invest close on two bar. Paying for the place in cash you can expect a ROI of just under 5%.

19 January 2010

The Organgerie - It Gets Worse

If you didn't like the 2 bed/2 bath flat in the Orangerie for R2 975 000, then perhaps you'll want to invest in a 1 bed/1 bath flat. Only R2 650 000. For 85m2 which works out to about R31 100/m2.

18 January 2010

Ballinrobe: Still Not Finished

Our regular Sea Point writer PJ write in about the Ballinrobe development, which we last heard about in August 2008:

Guess what, it's a year and a half later and Ballinrobe is still a concrete shell uglying up High Level Rd. Looks like my prediction of them finishing it in June 2010, 2 years after they were supposed to finish, is more prescient than ever. I wonder if all of the off plan buyers are still alive it's been so long...

14 January 2010

Rent Vs Buy: The Orangerie

Finally! After watching it being constructed The Orangerie in Orange Street is finished! Out of the way welfare pensioners (a CPOA old age home was demolished to make way for it)! We need some shoddily built overpriced apartments.

Anyway so we haven't had a Rent Vs Buy analysis in a while so why not today. Here's a 2bed/2bath apartment on the market for R2 975 000.That means on a 100% bond you will be paying R29 701/month. Or you can rent the exact same apartment for R11 750 (that's gross not net). Now to be clear I would never advocate anyone rent a 2 bed apartment for R11 000+/month but that's just what the asking rate is at the moment for this joint (and that's if they achieve it). The difference between the bond and the rental is R17 951/month meaning that after year one you'll have lost R215 000. And it gets worse, the transfer duty on this property is over R230 000, which means you could rent this place for two years and be in the exact financial position as someone who bought it, except they will have paid in over R600 000 in bond payments in that time. Will capital appreciation make up the difference in two years?

I'd just like to add a final thought here: For close to 3 bar I'd like a decent kitchen, not a 'kitchen nook' in the middle of the dining/living area or whatever name developers call it.

Here's the yield graph:



So a deposit of R1 800 000 is needed to break even on cash flow. Paying for the whole place in cash gets you 4.74% ROI and that's before levies (which won't be cheap for this place), maintenance and vacancy costs.

Anyone got more info on the Orangerie? Is it a ghost town? Let me know at capetownbubble@gmail.com

04 January 2010

Camps Bay: Sales Hit The Brick Wall

Reader GD writes:

Saw this statistic posted over at this thread on relestateweb. If it's true... OUCH!

SAPTG suburb trend: Camps Bay






YearNo. Sales
2007120
200888
20093


Now assuming conditions don't get worse (highly unlikely), looks like Camps Bay is forecast for 12 sales year ending 2009 - an unhealthy 86% drop in volumes.


Update: This was originally posted on realestateweb in 2009. If anyone has current number of how many houses sold in 2009 in Camps Bay let me know.

14 December 2009

What's Happening at Treoc?

There are rumours floating around that Treoc, a well known SA property investment scheme, is in trouble with the banks. This article, which I can't read because it's subscribers only, at the Cape Times mentions

A SOMERSET West property scheme that allegedly duped the four major banks into overexposing thousands of investors to about R5 billion rand in bonds, has come under the spotlight in a sequestration inquiry in Cape Town

Coert Coetzee, who is the Chairman of Treoc (Coert reversed = Treoc geddit) metions it in passing in his own blog
I had a meeting today with my legal team regarding a newspaper article and as I understand it now, it is alleged that on a specific client’s bond application a certain bond originator did not disclose the bank’s required information to them. At this stage I do not know whether the fault lies with the originator, bank official or even the client not disclosing the correct information.

However, I am very upset and I ordered a full investigation. I will not hesitate for one moment to take swift and decisive action against the guilty party.


So does anyone out there have more information about what is being alleged? Did Treoc expose the banks to R5 billion in losses?

Update:
A report in the Cape Times shows claims that the Treoc duped the four major banks into overexposing thousands of investors to an estimated R5 billion in bonds. Its says Treoc Property Investments advised and organised loans for an inexperienced 29-year-old investor to about R2.9 million in bonds from different banks on a salary of R17 000. Financial records show that Treoc applied to four different banks for bonds for the Goodwood man on the same day, and got them. A former Treoc director, attorney Jose Delgado, who left in 2008, was subpoenaed to explain why, as a joint "independent" trustee, he did not advise the young man that he was getting into trouble. When it was put to Delgado that Treoc director Coert Coetzee was "selling fraud on creditors", Delgado answered: "You can look at it that way." Treoc, an investment company directed by Coert Coetzee, offered property investment courses to laymen on how to create and operate property trusts. Treoc did everything in-house: applying for bonds, sourcing properties, administering a rental pool, and offering related financial services.

02 December 2009

Million Dollar World Cup Rental - On Sale For Half a Decade

When I heard about the $1 000 000 World Cup rental I knew immediately it could only be one property: this 5 bed Clifton mansion on the market for R80 000 000 (check the umbrellas).

Now this property I've been aware of for a while. Every few months Pam Golding includes it as part of their pull out property feature. It's been on sale for YEARS. Hell I remember at least 4 years back when it was on the market for R40 000 000.

And a final thought: What's the point of renting a beach side mansion in the middle of winter?

28 November 2009

Saturday Open Thread - The Great Real Estate Agent Cull

Sea Point reporter JP wrote in
Noticed today 3 estate agencies are now empty - Anne Porter, ERA and Chas Everitt. Not sure if they closed for good or moved to smaller offices..

What's the status of the Great Real Estate Cull in your area?

25 November 2009

Senator Park: "Needs Some TLC... And A Bulletproof Vest"

Here's an ad for a bachelor in Senator Park, in Long Street:
Bachelor Flat overlooking Long Street.
Needs some TLC
Great Investment Opportunity
But before you put in that offer...
Senator Park - 'hell hole of a place'

"Sometimes you hear terrible screaming and the next day you see blood all over the walls."

It's just one of the horrors a Senator Park tenant has experienced in the "hell hole of a place".

The tenant in the Keerom Street building, who does not want to be named for fear of reprisals, said despite attempts by security services and managers to curb problems, the situation had become unbearable.


So yeah.. needs some TLC... and a bullet proof vest when you go to collect the rent.

13 November 2009

Royal Carlisle: Early Buyer? You Just Lost R100 000.

Remember Royal Carlisle? They're STILL trying to sell units, despite being "80% sold out" after the block was completed in May 2009, by basically admitting that early buyers (who bought for between R650 000 - R690 000) just watched R100 000 - R130 000 vapourise into thin air.

07 November 2009

Selling Season Start Open Thread

It's the beginning of the traditional Summer selling season in Cape Town. Lots of stock coming onto the market means lots of stock has to sell or languish during winter when the winter lull in March rolls round. It's make or break time for a lot of agencies.

24 October 2009

Saturday Open Thread

It's time for the Saturday Open Thread. Jeez, when am I going to start posting actual content?

10 October 2009

03 October 2009

Saturday Open Thread

It's the Saturdau open thread, although with this weather I'll understand if you prefer to be outside than commenting on blogs.

12 September 2009

Tri Nations Victory Open Thread

In honour of the Bokke winning this morning this open thread edition has been renamed the Tri Nations Victory Open Thread

29 August 2009

18 August 2009

Sunday Times Doubting One & Only Sale

On the 29th of June we posted an article titled R110 Million Sale Falls Through For Seeff which cast some questions if whether the R110m sale of a penthouse in Sol Kerzner's new V&A Waterfront One & Only development had fallen through. We did so because in listings for the development 3 out of the 3 penthouses built are listed for sale, when there should only be 2.

And quite coincidentally (I'm sure) according to RealestateWeb, the Sunday Times ran an article this past Sunday saying literally the same thing, that the sale was in fact staged by Sol Kerzner as a "sale" to himself with the penthouse being returned to the rental pool of the hotel. And no doubt if a buyer could be found for it would be sold off without a seconds thought as the article we wrote earlier here showed there are in fact 3 penthouses for sale.

I haven't bought the Sunday Times in a while (prefer the non-tabloid Business Day Weekender these days after they gave me a shout out a year ago) so if anyone has the article let me know if it mentioned anything about the supposedly sold apartment coming back on the market and if they attribute that nugget of information to anyone.

And Sunday Times reporters if you're reading, let me know if you need any more story ideas.

01 August 2009

Rent Vs Buy: Bloubergstrand - Invest R1.8m, Make R0.

This 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Blouberg is on the market for R2 650 000. That means with a 100% bond you will currently be paying R27352/month to cover the bond. Or you could rent it for R8 000/month, which means that the difference between rental and bond payment is R19352/month, nearly 2.5 times more than the rental income itself! Here is the dismal Payment and Yield graph.

Right, so paying for the place in full nets you a massive 3.62% return on investment, and to break even on cash flow you need to plonk down over R1 800 000 (a 70% downpayment). Putting down a 50% downpayment of R1 325 000 will still lose you over R60 000/year. Once you take into account rates, levies, maintenance and vacancy costs and the returns will be even lower.

Saturday Open Thread

'Tis the Saturday Open Thread.

25 July 2009

Saturday Open Thread

It's time for the Saturday open thread, which is incidentally the 600th post of this blog.

29 June 2009

R110 Million Sale Falls Through For Seeff

Back in June 2008, Seeff were crowing because one of their agents had sold a penthouse at Sol Kerzner's One&Only development at the V&A Waterfront for a hefty R110 million. Here's a quote:
The first of the three super-luxury penthouses which hotel magnate Sol Kerzner is developing on his One&Only Hotel Cape Town in the V&A Waterfront has been sold by Seeff at a record price of over R110 million.


Now read the following quote from this listing:
One&Only 3 EXTRAORDINARY PENTHOUSES FOR SALE.


Now I never did too well at maths, but if you have three penthouses and you sell one, that should leave two for sale. So why are three on sale? Also why has the new listed price dropped R10 million.

13 June 2009

Saturday Open Thread

After last weeks jaunt into Sunday, we're back at the original Saturday open thread.

31 May 2009

The Commercial Property Bubble Is About To Burst

Just as South Africa wakes up to the fact that the residential property bubble has burst and prices are falling, another property sector, the commercial sector, is about to hear the sound of pawpaw hitting the fan.

Like the residential bubble, the mainstream media has all but ignored the fact that the commercial property market was built on easy credit and lax lending standards. As Noseweek details in this months issue, the good times are over and banks are facing massive writeoffs.

19 May 2009

Estate Agency Owned Auction House In The Works

I've been hearing rumblings that the major SA real estate agencies (Seeff, Pam Golding, Rawson et al) are going to launch a jointly owned auction house to try and get some stock off their books. Currently the majority of real estate auctions are done by Auction Alliance who have agreements with ABSA and FNB to get rid of properties off their books.

Anyone out there with any more info on a possible agency owned auction house?

09 May 2009

04 May 2009

House Price Drop Officially Hits -10%

House prices continue to deteriorate

The steady deterioration in house prices continued in April, according to FNB's House Price Index released on Monday.

This was a result of a sizeable oversupply that had built-up in the residential market.

The number of owners trying to sell houses due to financial pressure was a key driver of the oversupply.

According to property economist John Loos, the April FNB House Price Index had reached double-digit year-on-year average house price deflation for the first time, to the tune of -10,2%.

This put the average house price level back to the level at the end of 2006, Loos said.

25 April 2009

Saturday Open Thread

Work is still kicking my ass so unfortunately updates are going to be reduced over the next couple of weeks. If you've got a story feel free to send it to capetownbubble@gmail.com. Here's the Saturday open thread.

15 April 2009

Century City: 18 Months On The Market And Still Going Strong

This 2 bed flat in Century City has been on the market for at least one and a half years with the price bouncing up and down between R780 000 and R800 000. Will someone just buy it already and put the seller out of his agony.

And look at that view, Sandrift East never looked so beautiful...

09 April 2009

Dubai? Really?

So this is a bit out my jurisdiction but I saw this ad running in the ad bar at the top of my own site and had to comment:

Seriously? Are there people still buying off plan in Dubai? That entire country has literally stopped building. Dubai is probably more screwed than most other places.