21 November 2009

Saturday Open Thread

It's the Saturday Open Thread.

18 comments:

CJ said...

At risk of being boring I mention the Argus food basket again because it's rate of deflation this week is astounding even me - this last week it fell an incredible 4%. We now have deflation of 17.5% on the year (that's minus 17.5% inflation).

My new estimate at current trends is minus 24% inflation by Christmas.

The official CPI is 5% and official food inflation is 4%.

Now this is where it gets interesting. In the Nov 2007 to Nov 2008 year the official CPI was 12% and the argus basket was 13%. In other words, the Argus basket was spot on.

Now there is an incredible 22.5% difference between the CPI figure and the Argus basket figure - what is going on? The basket hasn't changed. I suspect there is something seriously wrong going on with the CPI and it is simply not reflecting the deflation going on.

Any ideas out there.

Zed Saldanha said...

Yup, deflation is here I have to admit.
Deflation happens when people don't have enough money to buy the goods on offer, right? This is surprising considering 2009 was supposed to be a bad year for crops, especially grains. At the same time we have reports of hunger and malnutrition from all over eg: the 35 million now "food insecure" in the US to the World Food Program's estimates of 1billion hungry for the first time in history.
It isn't that there is no a food available to buy, these people just don't have any money to buy it with.
As for the gap between the Argus basket and CPI I can only speculate that the basket contains mostly basic staples, perhaps more basic than those in the CPI.
Just speculating, but I would say this is another example of the poorest getting even poorer. When you're already spending 80% or so of your household budget on food, there's little else to cut.

bbflames said...

I dont have the figures but believe that PPI is in negative territory now. Is this difference between CPI and PPI because of anti competitive behaviour?

propxchanja said...

CJ,
I see your dilema and agree that all the signs of deflation are here, in SA. But, it seems most analysts are now saying that the US and UK are firmly in an inflationery environment....

Does this mean your findings of our deflationery envirnment are going to be short lived?

Please read:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15131.html

CJ said...

Last time I checked a few months ago, pretty much every major country had officially gone negative inflation except for Russia, India and South Africa.

I reckon we are about to join the party.

The downward channel on the SA inflation graph indicates the CPI can go down to minus 2% late next year.

I can't take the inflation or hyper inflation story seriously until we start seeing some and for now it just doesn't seem to be there.

But why the huge difference between the basket and CPI. When I say 22.5% difference, I am not saying the basket is 22.5% different, I am saying subtract 22.5 from the official figure and you get the basket figure.

If it was the other way round, CPI would be 6% and the basket would be 28.5% ie 450% greater. That is the extent to how far the figures are apart. It is crazy.

ad said...

Well CJ at the risk of being boring and hounded off the blog with more comments about "global warming" I will dig in here with a post about "cooked" statistics since this is pertinent to the subject at hand. I have the hacked archive and the sheer volume shows it is genuine.

Wikileaks entry....http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_emails,_data,_models,_1996-2009

This archive presents over 120Mb of emails, documents, computer code and models from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, written between 1996 and 2009.

The CRU has told the BBC that the files were obtained by a computer hacker 3-4 days ago.

This archive includes unreleased global temperature analysis computer source code that has been the subject of Freedom of Information Act requests.
The archive appears to be a collection of information put together by the CRU prior to a FoI redaction process.

http://www.examiner.com/x-28973-Essex-County-Conservative-Examiner~y2009m11d22-The-Hockey-Stick-was-never-accurateand-CRU-knew-it

The "hockey stick" graph (above), which appeared on the cover of the WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 1999, is now known to have its basis in this e-mail (File 0942777075.txt) from Phil Jones to Ray Bradley, Michael Mann, and Malcolm Hughes:

Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,

Once Tim's got a diagram here we'll send that either later today or first thing tomorrow.

I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline. Mike's series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.

Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Cheers

Phil

But what most readers do not generally appreciate is that, one month earlier, Dr. Tim Osborn, also of the CRU, sent an e-mail to Michael Mann (File 0939154709.txt) containing two columns of data from his study of tree-ring densities. That e-mail begins thus:

Keith has asked me to send you a timeseries for the IPCC multi-proxy reconstruction figure, to replace the one you currently have. The data are attached to this e-mail. They go from 1402 to 1995, although we usually stop the series in 1960 because of the recent non-temperature signal that is superimposed on the tree-ring data that we use. I haven't put a 40-yr smoothing through them - I thought it best if you were to do this to ensure the same filter was used for all curves.


Ive read many rebuttals from the science establishment in the last 2 to 3 days talking about frank communication between scientists etc but its all part of the BS of our age...Enron style bookkeeping, ponzi schemes, sales and marketing lies and government stats.

ad said...

The only accurate way to calculate inflation/deflation through the basket method is to keep tabs on your own basket with a consistent product selection.

Statisticians use methods like substitution and hedonics to calculate values.

Substitution means that if tuna becomes too expensive then they will substitute pilchards in the basket as people will supposedly move away from tuna and buy pilchards instead. Thus the lower pilchards price is the new basket component for fish.

If a cellphone model gets new features, but remains the same selling price on the shelves, then there will be a decrease in the basket price due to "more bang for your buck" This is hedonics.

Chris Martenson in his Crash Course goes in depth on this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eidQTDjQ5gw

ad said...

CJ perhaps the Argus basket is correct as they possibly wouldnt use substitution and hedonics etc, and would do it the old fashioned way with a consistent product selection.

Pity we dont have a Shadow Government Statistics of our own in SA

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Zed Saldanha said...

@ad
Shadowstats. Interesting site. Thanks for the link.

There is a noticeable lack of dissident economic reporting on the SA economy, even online.

Considering the massively obese size of our FIRE sector (20.X% of GDP) and the hundreds of thousands of paper shufflers it employs you would expect more black sheep to break rank. Maybe they weed them out at uni?

ad said...

Another update on the warming scam for those readers who are interested. How the world is changing....looks like certain conspiracies do actually exist and I am no longer a theorist.

This conspiracy comprises a group of warming scientists who have been central in spreading the false claim that the world has never been hotter and man's gases are to blame.

It's come to light after nearly 4000 emails and documents were stolen from the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and dumped on the internet by what is almost certainly a whistleblower.

What they reveal is perhaps the greatest scientific scandal of our time - a conspiracy by warmist scientists to fudge statistics, sack sceptical scientists, block the release of data to prevent checking, illegally destroy data, deceive reporters, censor sceptical papers, and hide errors in their work.

Most extraordinary are the emails in which these scientists admit to each other what they've never confessed to the world - that the world is not warming as their theories predicted.

In fact, it's been cooling since 2001.

Cried one, IPCC co-author Kevin Trenberth, in an email to other members of this conspiracy: "The fact is that we cannot account for the lack of warming at the moment and it's a travesty that we can't."

These are not some obscure scientists. Rather, they include co-authors of the reports of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - which Rudd cites as his proof that warming is "happening and it's caused by human activity".

They include Phil Jones, head of the CRU unit from which the emails were taken - a unit that Britain's former chief scientific adviser, Sir David King, said "set the agenda for the major research effort" in climate science.

They include Pennsylvania State University's Michael Mann and CRU deputy director Keith Briffa, both IPCC co-authors, who also produced the two studies that most convinced journalists of the false claim that it's now hotter than the Medieval Warm Period just 800 years ago.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/rorting-data-is-hell-nino/story-e6frfhqf-1225803452749


EDITORIAL: Hiding evidence of global cooling
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/nov/24/hiding-evidence-of-global-cooling/

Chucky said...

AD - I have no doubt that huge "conspiracies" exist, but as a professional writer (I get paid to lie well) I would urge you to remember that conspiracies work both ways.

Your sentiments are admirable. I believe, like you, that we are being sold an almighty dummy. But I also know that whatever is in the public eye - or melodramatically being revealed as having been kept out of the public eye - is what They want you to be looking at. The real killer is what nobody saw coming except for the people who had money riding on it. I can guarantee you that the world is in terrible danger right now, but only a small number of Goldman-Sachs wallahs know why and from what.

I'm afraid you are being led a merry dance, being drip-fed arguments and counterarguments at just the right rate so that you will believe you have a handle on the issues either way.

I have no theory on Global Warming, as the whole thing is a political tool and therefore meaningless. I know that Climate Change is real because I am a keen botanist and gardener and my plants are telling me very strange things, but again none of us can know whether it is man-made or not.

But what I do know is that the two sources you quote - the Herald Sun and the Washington Times - are about as partial in the debate as Joseph Goebbels was in the debate on the historical borders of the Sudetenland. The HS is owned by Rupert Murdoch, which means it is owned by a profoundly conservative and pro-business and anti-warming clique. The WT is probably even more conservative - check it out on Wikipedia and you'll find this classic quote by one of its head honchos:

"We're trying to combat communism and we're trying to uphold traditional Judeo-Christian values".

For "Judeo-Christian values" read absolute denial of global warming AND climate change, with a sprinkling of genuinely terrifying "end times" apocalyptic theology/lunacy in which the Earth was given to us by God to wipe our arses on. Check it out - you won't sleep for a week.

Finally, the evidence of global cooling has not been hidden from us. I read about it on the BBC about three months ago. And why did I read about it? Because the BBC is the mouthpiece of UK PLC, and UK PLC needs to keep pumping out that CO2 so that the sheeple can keep buying stuff they can't afford.

Sorry about the lecture, but if you are going to engage in this fight you need to know that powder is wet, and that people you thought you could trust wet it.

Zed Saldanha said...

This is the last time I will be taking part in a GW debate on this blog.

ad. if the world is cooling.
Why are the glaciers in Greenland melting?
Why are the Alpine glaciers retreating?
Why are the Antarctic ice sheets coming to bits?
Why are northern sea routes free of ice for the first time in recorded history?
Why is the permafrost in Alaska and Siberia melting? (they are called "perma" frost - as in per-ma-nent)
Where does the arctic ice sheet go in summer?

This is not blurry image on the grassy knoll stuff, bru. These reports cannot be faked. If they can, then we must be living in the matrix and you have a tube in your mouth and another up your poephol and none of this matters anyway.

ad said...

I agree Chucky, with certain things. I see you know your MSM well and thats informative. However I have the hacked archive of material so I can reference it myself...makes good reading without a drip. As I said to Benny last week, I post from all sources and not just anyone specific and I dont necessarily agree with everything they say or their agendas. Dont jump to conclusions about the breadth of my understanding or research based on your perception of a single blog post.

And as for you being paid for lying? Read this...

http://www.realitysandwich.com/ubiquitous_matrix_lies

Benny there is climate change yes, I dont agree with people monetizing it and having to pay a tax on breathing.

Chucky said...

AD, I read the realitysandwich article. Wow. Why take six words to make your point - "Language is a tricksy little varmint" - when 3,800 will do? I'm afraid the passion and earnestness of a lot of alternative media scribblers is inversely proportional to their skill as writers. "As activists for the truth, we are midwives to this process." Groovy, man; but are you an activist for the truth or a midwife, or just a cross and overlooked typist with a penchant for mixing metaphors?

Reality Sandwich gives freedom of expression a bad name. Seriously. You should not read it anymore. It made me about 4 percent stupider in the 10 minutes I perused it.

peter said...

Pollution will be our end - long, long before climate change or effects of global warming/cooling. An toxic environment is our fate. Forget about saving the poor abalone from extinction - we will soon not have any poison-free water to drink or land to produce food on.

Anyway, while we wait for the end of humanity and the monetary system and the world as we know it, I cant wait for todays CPI figures to come out! Not the betting type, but I say its not going to be good news for those that need deflation to survive.

I still cant find those freebie properties everyone is going on about and I definitely cant walk out of the supermarket with a smaller bill than 6 months ago...

Sorry guys and girls, but life aint getting cheaper! Time for CTPB to change name? Perhaps to CTP?

peter said...

Pollution will be our end - long, long before climate change or effects of global warming/cooling. An toxic environment is our fate. Forget about saving the poor abalone from extinction - we will soon not have any poison-free water to drink or land to produce food on.

Anyway, while we wait for the end of humanity and the monetary system and the world as we know it, I cant wait for todays CPI figures to come out! Not the betting type, but I say its not going to be good news for those that need deflation to survive.

I still cant find those freebie properties everyone is going on about and I definitely cant walk out of the supermarket with a smaller bill than 6 months ago... but thats just me.

Sorry guys and girls, but life aint getting cheaper!

(Time for CTPB to change name? CTP perhaps?)

ad said...

Chucky, you sounded just like Tom Eaton there with that inversely proportional bit...he is a favourite writer of mine too.

For me the article is about the loss of the somatic power of words. For you the focus is on metaphor and the image of the writer. Guess that just illustrates the crux of the article really.

Since you enjoyed it so much you could buy his book on Amazon or read it free online...maybe make him happier and rescue him from obscurity.

http://www.ascentofhumanity.com/

http://www.amazon.com/Ascent-Humanity-Charles-Eisenstein/dp/0977622207/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1259149438&sr=8-1

He reminds me of Morris Berman and "Coming to our Senses"

Anonymous said...

How can food be cheaper when today i paid R17 for a baguette. Bread is now very expensive