A look at the Cape Town property market.
Europe is already following the same path as the USA so it is certain that what happened in the USA will happen in South Africa too.
Not so simple. Firstly Europe is not a single housing market. Overheated "tourist" markets such as in coastal Spain and Portugal are following the USA, largely on the back also of reduced buying power from the UK, which is the one market really following the USA most closely (bar London). But house prices in Germany, for example, have not done much for years - probably because much more of the general populace rents and does not buy - which seems imminently sensible, and why the Euro will weather storm much better than the dollar.What happens in SA will vary across sectors, very likely. Top end luxury sector might only be affected if local politics goes really pear-shaped, oil hits $200 (killing tourism) or if the global economy tanks big (ie depression). Mid range will be most sensitive to political outlook and to interest rates - not following the US, but simply an affordability issue (supply demand). Bottom end will chug along quietly - especially inner city good security properties that offer a buffer against travel costs that are going to bite ever more deeply into budgets of most South Africans. Check out the difference between the ABSA mean price change and Standard median house price change - both are very instructive, with ABSA telling us more about the top end (the few expensive sales that skew the average up) and the median from Standard showing the way of the bulk market
We have to remember that oil will be 500 dollars a barril in 8 years time. Oil producers have already admitted to that!!
SA does not have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they have over 60% of the mortgage market in the USA and they have gone broke
If foreign investors take their money out of south african banks, the country will be in ruins. witghout rich foreigners South Africa would slowly die
Looks to be getting worse:S&P: Home prices drop by record 15.8 "pct. in May" http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080729/ap_on_bi_ge/home_pricesAlso interesting news video...if you don't mind where you are in the US (not NYC, San Fran), can pick up some deals these days, esp in 2nd tier cities. see: http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=9029261&ch=4226720&src=news
Post a Comment