What manner of delusional thinking gets us to believe that our housing bubble will not burst?
Are we all stupid or something? (don't answer that!)
The value of a house, as with ANY asset) is that which is supported by the underlying income stream. i.e. either the rent or the bond payments made by the owner.
Here's an interesting check list - first off, drops from peak
US - house prices have dropped about 40% real
Dubai - house prices nominally down over 50%
Spain - houses that are 50% down might sell if in good location - others need to fall lower to get a sale
Netherlands - 40% down in real
Ireland - 40% down real
SA still only 15% real down UK still only 16% real down Australia still hasn't dropped
Now let's compare to a decade ago -----
Interestingly, Japan is down 30% real Singapore about 10% real higher Switzerland about 20% real higher Ireland back to where it was in real terms The US back to where it was
BUT SA still 120% real above where it was UK still 60% real above where it was Australia 80% real above where it was
These last 3 are in total denial and their drops still have to come.
I have been following these blogs for a number of years now (prior to returning from UK in 2009). I have also avidly been following the property market but still do not see any "worth" in buying a depreciating asset. House I live in is a rental - in Parklands - yes I know about the area but easy locale for school and work - walk to both. (owner had it up for sale at R1.4m), only had 3 viewings since June last year. One offer was accepted at R1.1m but (and here's the crunch) banks would not lend at this price (it was valued at R950k). Now off the market and I am parking off/renting it for the next 12 months. In this area in the coming week the Sheriff has 15 properties just here to knock out. See the link below. I think the may need some apprentices soon as the volume has increased over the last month.
"It probably rents out for R5000/R6000 per month max"
I've seen these flats on gumtree (for rent) for the past 12 months. Same pictures/same flats just readvertised at lower rents..yet still no tenants. Think they started at R11k p/m and last check i think they were at R7k..
7 comments:
1.4 mill for 62 m2 will not sell. Try 900 K and you might sell if you are lucky. CT property way overpriced
Another place that is way overpriced is Citadel in Plumstead. No wonder half the block empty. Some of these guys must be smoking more than cigars.
Agree with first Anon. Still has to come down significantly to represent value for money. It probably rents out for R5000/R6000 per month max.
Still got a long way to go - down!
What manner of delusional thinking gets us to believe that our housing bubble will not burst?
Are we all stupid or something? (don't answer that!)
The value of a house, as with ANY asset) is that which is supported by the underlying income stream. i.e. either the rent or the bond payments made by the owner.
Any values higher than this are unsustainable.
Here's an interesting check list -
first off, drops from peak
US - house prices have dropped about 40% real
Dubai - house prices nominally down over 50%
Spain - houses that are 50% down might sell if in good location - others need to fall lower to get a sale
Netherlands - 40% down in real
Ireland - 40% down real
SA still only 15% real down
UK still only 16% real down
Australia still hasn't dropped
Now let's compare to a decade ago -----
Interestingly, Japan is down 30% real
Singapore about 10% real higher
Switzerland about 20% real higher
Ireland back to where it was in real terms
The US back to where it was
BUT SA still 120% real above where it was
UK still 60% real above where it was
Australia 80% real above where it was
These last 3 are in total denial and their drops still have to come.
I have been following these blogs for a number of years now (prior to returning from UK in 2009). I have also avidly been following the property market but still do not see any "worth" in buying a depreciating asset. House I live in is a rental - in Parklands - yes I know about the area but easy locale for school and work - walk to both. (owner had it up for sale at R1.4m), only had 3 viewings since June last year. One offer was accepted at R1.1m but (and here's the crunch) banks would not lend at this price (it was valued at R950k). Now off the market and I am parking off/renting it for the next 12 months. In this area in the coming week the Sheriff has 15 properties just here to knock out. See the link below. I think the may need some apprentices soon as the volume has increased over the last month.
http://www.sheriff.co.za/immovable.asp
"It probably rents out for R5000/R6000 per month max"
I've seen these flats on gumtree (for rent) for the past 12 months. Same pictures/same flats just readvertised at lower rents..yet still no tenants.
Think they started at R11k p/m and last check i think they were at R7k..
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