Just noticed the Economist graph in the piece below - the full interactive graph is here - http://tinyurl.com/y9bayjd
I reckon the long term real price norm is around 2003 Q1 - so set the real price to start here - notice SA is the biggest peak - we need to return to the norm and then overshoot it a bit - that's a real price fall of 50% - pretty much guaranteed.
As you can see, this baby ain't over crashing yet - got quite a way to go ...
CJ, I fully agree. Personally I think that the end of the FIFA World Cup will be the event that will send property prices into a tailspin. By then, the hype around the whole event will be gone and the realisation of all the people that are going loose or have lost their jobs will sink in. Our whole economy is spinning around this one event. If you look at how many roads, stadiums and other buildings are being either built or upgraded it stands to reason why building costs are so high. Where is the next job these construction companies need going to come from? What is going to happen to the manufacturers of all the building materials? I do not share in the hype. If SA shows a profit after all this I will be very surprised. At least we will have a few new or upgraded roads thanks to the event! And maybe even a few properties at bargain prices.
4 comments:
Just noticed the Economist graph in the piece below - the full interactive graph is here - http://tinyurl.com/y9bayjd
I reckon the long term real price norm is around 2003 Q1 - so set the real price to start here - notice SA is the biggest peak - we need to return to the norm and then overshoot it a bit - that's a real price fall of 50% - pretty much guaranteed.
As you can see, this baby ain't over crashing yet - got quite a way to go ...
CJ, I fully agree.
Personally I think that the end of the FIFA World Cup will be the event that will send property prices into a tailspin. By then, the hype around the whole event will be gone and the realisation of all the people that are going loose or have lost their jobs will sink in.
Our whole economy is spinning around this one event. If you look at how many roads, stadiums and other buildings are being either built or upgraded it stands to reason why building costs are so high. Where is the next job these construction companies need going to come from? What is going to happen to the manufacturers of all the building materials?
I do not share in the hype. If SA shows a profit after all this I will be very surprised. At least we will have a few new or upgraded roads thanks to the event! And maybe even a few properties at bargain prices.
and the Weekend Argus stated "experts" saying that property will rise 30% over the next 3 years. Thus they stated, NOW is the time to buy
"property will rise 30% over the next 3 years. Thus they stated, NOW is the time to buy"[quote]
This song has been sung over and over. It may be that these people are actually trying to convice not only the sheeple but themselves too.
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