28 November 2009

Saturday Open Thread - The Great Real Estate Agent Cull

Sea Point reporter JP wrote in
Noticed today 3 estate agencies are now empty - Anne Porter, ERA and Chas Everitt. Not sure if they closed for good or moved to smaller offices..

What's the status of the Great Real Estate Cull in your area?

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

In Hout bay we now have AnnePorter-Knight-Frank-MattMercer properties

http://www.houtbayrealestate.com/

ad said...

Since the death and merger of estate agencies doesnt excite y'all heres a interesting website.

It explains "the Nature Journal trick" of hiding the decline in tree ring density data after 1960.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/28/how-the-trick-was-pulled-off/#more-13328

Onwards to Copenhagen....

I noticed that Goodbai World is similar to many South Africans like this next article shows...I liked the last paragraph..hysterical.

DUBAI — Dubai World, the heavily indebted United Arab Emirates conglomerate behind plunging global markets, is refusing to sell off its assets cheaply, a senior company official said in a report on Sunday.

"The group has categorically refused in recent months to sell several properties and investments at low prices," the official whose name was not revealed told Al-Ittihad, a state-run Abu Dhabi daily.

"The sale of these assets should be on a fair, commercial basis, allowing the group to achieve its strategic long-term (goals) away from cyclical economic pressures," the source was quoted as saying.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iWlZ4sTiwDVnmwomApnmKi_BjYEA

Then came the credit crunch. Property values dropped by as much as 50%. Sales, say the developers in understatements, have slowed. Seems there was a lot of debt used to speculate on real estate, not to mention buying Barney's, Las Vegas casinos, banks, etc. And while US banks have little exposure, it seems England has about 50% or so of the debt, with the rest of Europe having the lion's share of the remainder. Admittedly, the estimates seem to confuse the debt of Dubai with that of Abu Dhabi, so it is hard to know a reliable number, other than that European banks are the most exposed.

Now, here's the deal. Abu Dhabi has the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, at over $650 billion. Dubai has a "mere" $15 billion. If they cared to, Abu Dhabi could write a small check and make all the problems disappear. It just seems that they are not ready to do that, at least not yet. Abu Dhabi already got the world's tallest building on past debt problems.

Construction and real estate were as much as 25% of the economy. Let's see. Large leverage with maybe $5 billion in interest in a $50 billion economy that is 25% construction? A construction and real estate-driven economy. A real estate bubble. Sound like California, Florida, Spain? How can this be a surprise, except that everyone expected big brother Abu Dhabi to pick up the check?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=15400

ad said...

Ive read many reports that a property recovery is taking place in Spain etc.

Spain is sliding into a full-blown economic depression with unemployment approaching levels not seen since the Second Republic of the 1930s and little chance of recovery until well into the next decade, according to a clutch of reports over recent days.

The root cause of Spain's trouble is that it joined monetary union before its economy was ready. EMU halved Spanish interest rates almost overnight. Real rates were minus 2pc for much of this decade. Combined private and corporate debt reached 230pc of GDP, funded by French and German savings.

The credit boom masked a steady decline in productivity over the last decade. Spain's unit labour costs have risen by about 30pc compared to Germany.

The Bank of Spain made heroic efforts to counter the effects of the bubble by forcing banks to put aside extra reserves, known as dynamic provisioning, but the sheer scale of the problem has washed over the defences.

Spain no longer has the escape valve of devaluation to claw back market share. It cannot resort to emergency monetary stimulus – as Switzerland, Britain, the US, and Japan are doing to prevent the onset of debt deflation. Prices are already falling at a rate of 1.2pc.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6228390/Spain-tips-into-depression.html

Whats most interesting for me in this article is this.....Local communities have started to issue scrip currency known as "moneda social"

Anonymous said...

Ha Ha Dubai World has officially crashed and guess what ??

Kerzner BANKRUPT,The V&A Waterfront,Pearl Valley Golf Estates and Spas,nine game farms and lodges,among them Shamwari Game Lodge are ALL bankrupt OVERNIGHT.
How's that for the beginning of the REAL depression.

I see a HUGE domino effect on all SA property prices now.
Many Sellers will HAVE to sell their unwanted properties at fire-sale,bargain-basement prices 50-60%off, or end up at the Sheriffs' door forced to sell in execution.

Zed Saldanha said...

@ Anon

Kerzner bankrupto? Is he a big shareholder in DW? I was aware of the V&A - Dubai World link but I don't quite understand how it makes Kerzner bankrupt. I can't see how bankrupt Dubai will affect CT directly except that someone else will probably soon own the Table Bay seabed. Can you explain/post a link?

ad said...

It's also not clear what the implications are for Sol Kerzner, the chief executive and chairman of Kerzner International, which recently opened a luxury hotel on The Palm, a man-made island off the coast of Dubai. According to the London Financial Times (FT) the hotel and gaming group is part-owned by Nakheel, the government-owned development arm of Dubai World.

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=5266606

ad said...

I remember an interview with Trevor "tighten your belts and there are tough new penalties if you dont submit your tax return while I splash out on this 1.2 million beemer" Manuel where he said that after repeatedly going back, sorry sent back to the drawing board by the IMF and World Bank in the 90's (remember nationalization?) he threw up his hands and said "show us how its done"

I remember so many many visions falling by the wayside...including the change from land for all to a black farmer class for instance.

I havent read Moeletsi Mbekis book but I suspect I will find much of this in there. The co opting of Cyril Ramaphosa by the Oppenheimers through Johnnic for instance. What did he say recently? "I got distracted by big business" Ja right...what a short attention span you and Tokyo have.

Anyway its funny how we have fallen "in line with international norms" which is what I read about hedonics and substitution on the Stats SA website recently. But it goes beyond this...jobless recoveries and spending beyond our means is the beginning of a list too long to mention.

Consumer spending has slumped this year as the economy fell into its first recession in 17 years and thousands of jobs were cut. While the economy returned to growth in the third quarter, the unemployment rate continued to climb, reaching 24.5 percent in the three months through September, the highest of 62 countries tracked by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=a7hgPJtCCTFw

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of protecting South African bonds from default had its biggest increase in a year in November after a doubling of the government’s deficit projection raised concern the country may be spending beyond its means.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=a9fJyP.xBWqQ

Zed Saldanha said...

@ ad

Don't worry about the debt ad. The USA and UK will defualt on their debt long before SA, thus establishing new "norms". They'll be necklacing their bankers long before the slave mentality wears off here too - a norm I can't wait to see.

Anonymous said...

Remax in The Paddocks, Milnerton, moved to a MUCH smaller premises recently... guess the next step is to close down?

ad said...

A reading of The Times this morning is quite surreal..


FNB property strategist John Loos said: "House prices are starting to inflate and it is a sign the market is getting stronger. This is good news for owners, but not for potential buyers." The bank's index showed 2% year-on-year growth in house prices in November, after a period of deflation, which started in December last year. (Didnt he say a while back that deflation started in 2007?)

But Standard Bank's property book for the first 11 months of this year revealed an average monthly decline of 4.3% in the average house price. The November data yielded a declining rate of 4.5% year-on-year, improving slightly from the 4.6% decline in October.

http://www.timeslive.co.za/business/article216445.ece

And from the Wall Street Journal today....

Climategate, as readers of these pages know, concerns some of the world's leading climate scientists working in tandem to block freedom of information requests, blackball dissenting scientists, manipulate the peer-review process, and obscure, destroy or massage inconvenient temperature data—facts that were laid bare by last week's disclosure of thousands of emails from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit, or CRU.

But the deeper question is why the scientists behaved this way to begin with, especially since the science behind man-made global warming is said to be firmly settled. To answer the question, it helps to turn the alarmists' follow-the-money methods right back at them.

Consider the case of Phil Jones, the director of the CRU and the man at the heart of climategate. According to one of the documents leaked from his center, between 2000 and 2006 Mr. Jones was the recipient (or co-recipient) of some $19 million worth of research grants, a sixfold increase over what he'd been awarded in the 1990s.

This is what's known as a vested interest, and vested interests are an enemy of sound science.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB40001424052748703939404574566124250205490.html

Whats funny is Google has blocked the term Climategate from its autosuggest even though there are 12,600,000 results for it. In comparison global warming has 11,400,000 results but no autosuggest problem.

Zed Saldanha said...

Great, now Google is part of the great GW swindle. Someone better hack their emails and expose their scam.
Lucky we have so many oil industry lobbyists and Ayn Rand worshippers without any conflict of interest to tell us the truth about GW.
I don't give a shit about the GW debate really. What's going to happen is going to happen. I WILL be taxed indirectly by carbon trading and it WON'T prevent GW if it's caused by man-made carbon emmisions or not, because that's not what it's designed to do.

What I truly DO want, is a reliable way to figure out who is a GW denier and get their names, so that when the crops do fail and society breaks down etc, I know who's kids to feed to my kids.
It would only be fair.

Bean Counter said...

Re John Loos: I sent this collection Loos's Greatest Hits to CT Bubble some months ago, but it's worth posting again from time to time just to highlight the man's extraordinary ability to be wrong. Enjoy.

****************

“I think later in the decade towards 2008, house price inflation will start to pick up.” – June 2006

“So I don't see the end of house-price inflation for the country as a whole, and I think that by about next year you could start seeing a recovery in house-price inflation after some further decline this year…I think commercial property returns are going to be excellent for the rest of the decade.” – April 2007

“I expect to see a gradual uptick in demand for residential property towards the middle of the year… I don't think one should probably wait much longer. If one's holding out for price deflation I think you're probably going to be disappointed… I don't think it's a situation where we're going to see price deflation on a significant scale.” – February 2008

"You mustn't count residential property out, from a point of view of getting into the market. The good time to get into residential property is probably just about here, as residential is probably near the bottom of the cycle.” – September 2008

“Yes, I’m afraid the whole global crisis has gone substantially further than most of us expected - it’s taken the property downturn that started back in 2004 to worse levels, and we’re into price deflation and there’s not a lot we can do about the situation as to where we are.” Business Day Summit business show transcript, January 13 2009

ad said...

Try it yourself Benny...use Yahoo and Bing and they return climategate in autosuggest...google doesnt. For a search term that has over 12 million results??

It works in the US now...as this update shows, still not here.

UPDATE: At about 5:45 p.m. EST, commenters here and at Digg.com noted that the problem seemed to be resolved. Re-test of the Google autosuggestion routine now yields "climategate" after a few keystrokes, as one would normally expect. This, of course, begs the question of why the autosuggestion should have been problematic to begin with.


My apologies if the climate emails and revelations have rocked your worldview...deal with it. At least we are all more informed than before.

Please read this....http://www.realitysandwich.com/ubiquitous_matrix_lies

ad said...

and I have a healthy suspicion of Google and all the rest due to many such revelations...its all about the money remember?

Recent revelations that Yahoo helped the Chinese police and judicial authorities identify and convict a journalist who criticized human rights violations in China are shocking. But the case turned the spotlight on a situation we have condemned for years. Yahoo's is just the most striking example of Internet companies that help the world's most repressive regimes, especially China, carry out online censorship and surveillance. Consider the following:

http://news.cnet.com/A-cyber-blind-spot-on-human-rights/2010-1028_3-5977410.html

Zed Saldanha said...

Ad

Yes, all about the money, that's a safe assumption. You're also assuming there's more money to be made by Google covering up Climategate, than promoting it. Based on what?

With the yahoo-china thing the benefits to be derived for fucking chinese bloggers are obvious and comes down to a choice between towing the CCP line or losing all chinese (the biggest potential market) business.

Assuming for a second that Google is manipulating autosuggest. How would this benefit Google?

Please try and reason a plausible explanation (i.e one that doesn't involve Al Gore laughing as he sacrifices babies to Satan at the NWO Bilderbuger Black Mass)

Zed Saldanha said...

Back to property. Lately I've been trying to rent in the City Bowl after my office relocated here from Rondebosch. The Boss has a place in Gardens so it's great for her but not so great for me.

http://www.realestateweb.co.za/realestateweb/view/realestateweb/en/page228?oid=52698&sn=Detail

The closest I could in my price range is a one bedroom place in upper Woodstock and it's not so great, as the above article says is not unusual.
Question is: What's going to happen to all these furnished investment digs after the WC. Surely there will be a few months of happy time for renters in the City Bowl, a once-in-a-lifetime glut of decent accomodation after all the football fans go home?

ad said...

That was funny Benny...I wish thats all Al Gore actually did, preferably using his children and then himself.

As of this am climategate has reached 31,900,000 results on the serps (compare that to 12,600,000 which is when I posted about it). Climate change is still at 22,400,000. A glance at trends labs shows "climategate" has appeared in the lexicon within the last few weeks (obviously) to more than surpass "climate change" which has been in the lexicon for years, and will have 3 times more mentions on the net in a day or so. Perhaps the extreme breakout trend exposed a glitch in the software, or its by design, but it was blocked either way and still is for google.co.za. A reporter using the Tiger Woods index, since that is also a hot story, calculates that people are 20 times more interested in climategate than Woods' affairs. Why it doesnt appear on the autosuggest when it is clearly one of the biggest viral stories of all time beats me, especially from a company that prides itself on relevant results.

For your question there is some interesting stuff about. Nasa and Google have an ongoing partnership, Googles private jets even have climate research equipment aboard. Nasa btw receives much taxpayer money for climate change research...its a huge part of what they do.

· The New York Times Bits blog reported that Google executives added a fighter jet to "their growing fleet of private airplanes" which uniquely enjoy private landing/parking rights at NASA's Moffet airfield, a couple of miles from Google's headquarters -- an exceptional corporate perk by any measure.

· Kudos to the NYT for filing a Freedom of Information Act inquiry to further look into the Google-NASA special deal, because the deal has at least the perception of impropriety.

It is troubling and telling that there has been no public or open investigation of NASA's highly irregular arrangement to allow only Google's top executives landing rights at a NASA airsfield a couple of miles from Google's headquarters -- purportedly in exchange for scientific research.
http://precursorblog.com/content/google-parks-its-new-jet-fighter-nasa-why-deal-may-fleece-taxpayer

Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt appeared alongside California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger at a public event in San Francisco Wednesday, to tout the release of an analysis of the potential economic impact of climate change on the state — a potential impact that Schwarzenegger pegged at more than $2.5 trillion worth of assets.
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2009/12/03/google-visualizes-climate-disaster/

In a world where one person can tweak an autosuggest filter, which doesnt require a companywide memo, as opposed to trillion dollar taxpayer bailouts for corrupt banks or a "weapons of mass destruction" hoax which has led to 10's of thousands of innocent Iraqis killed, I remain a sceptic.

Zed Saldanha said...

@ Ad

Hmm, Ok. There seem to be some unusual links between Google and a certain US Gov organisation, but cooperation between NASA and a private sector company isn't in itself proof of a conspiracy.
What about all the other thousands of climate scientists that endorse the conclusions of studies that point to man-made global warming.
Are they all insane/payed off/NWO plants?

Do you have any conception of the size and scope of the conspiracy you're talking about?

Like I said, if they could really pull it off then there really is no point fighting it. They must in control of the nature of reality itself.

I recommend you prepare for climate change regardless. I don't believe that a Goldman Sachs administered carbon trading scheme will have any effect on the atmosphere apart from filling it with more emissions from Bentleys and Lamborginis and other banker bonus funded toys and trips.
If you're right, the climate will change even if we somehow manage to cut carbon emmisions to zero.

So we can at least agree that we're screwed beyond belief.

Yay! Consensus!

ad said...

@Benny

Look at any history and tell me how many people just follow orders, the money or prestige, shut up because of their job, family, position or fear of being a social outcast, ingratiate themselves or just have no clue and trust their superiors and the status quo?

Why do we never hear about former IPCC scientists who now disagree? If MSM spin is to be believed there is a consensus of scientists across the globe...

POZNAN, Poland – The UN global warming conference currently underway in Poland is about to face a serious challenge from over 650 dissenting scientists from around the globe who are criticizing the climate claims made by the UN IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore. Set for release this week, a newly updated U.S. Senate Minority Report features the dissenting voices of over 650 international scientists, many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN. The report has added about 250 scientists (and growing) in 2008 to the over 400 scientists who spoke out in 2007. The over 650 dissenting scientists are more than 12 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/ex-ipcc-and-world-scientists-push-back-on-global-warming/

This quote below will illustrate the type of "old boys club" we know well.
A quote from Catherine Austin Fitts
from Solari.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Austin_Fitts

"This case study provides a detailed example of the financial kickback machinery that makes the process go. It works something like this. A group of executives and investors start a company. Rather than build a business the old fashioned way, company profits are pumped up with government legislation, contracts, regulation, financing, subsidies and/or enforcement. This dramatically increases the value of the company's financial equity. The company and its initial investors then sell their stock at a profit. Such profits replenish contributions made to the kind of politicians who can arrange such government benefits. Such profits also fund philanthropy to foundations and universities that have large endowments that invest along side the investors. These tax-exempt organizations provide graduates to staff positions in the game, intellectual justification to attract popular support and photo opportunities which bestow legitimacy and social stature. Personnel cycle through the management and boards of business, government and academia, as real productivity falls and government deficits grow."
http://dunwalke.com/introduction.htm

This brings me to a video which is unusual, purely because this is no nutter being interviewed. Still shocks me...

In the McCarthy era in the US there were investigations into un-American activities. Below is a link to the report too.

1982 video of Norman Dodd of the Congressional Special Committee to investigate Tax Exempt Foundations
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUYCBfmIcHM

http://www.scribd.com/doc/3768227/Dodd-Report-to-the-Reece-Committee-on-Foundations-1954