It's Saturday and that's time for the open thread.
30 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Deflation again - see this weeks weekend Argus shopping basket - prices are down year on year. No need to go get your receipts from 12 months ago - Argus is doing it for you. Interesting, for once in our lives saving really makes sense - and a pathetic interest rate of 7% in the bank is actually doing rather well, in a deflation environment! What happens next to the value of money, I wonder. There will be intense pressure from the left to decrease interest rates in SA once CPI starts to reflect the reality of price drops. I'd hate to be a retailer with long term stock right now (ie car dealer or property developer)
Talking deflation, I wonder when SA employers are going to start to deflate employee salaries as is currently happening in the USA ?
1) A 4 day work week. 2) Employers asking employees to work the 5th day without pay.(As per British Airways) 2) Furloughs every month. 3) Taking cumpolsory unpaid leave. 4) Employees accepting time off in lieu,instead of time and a half and double time for overtime worked. Interesting times ahead :)
Deflating salaries is very dangerous in our country; our labor unions will not allow it. As an employer I do not fill vacant posts. Form a staff contingent of 25 people we are now down to 18. The other way of cutting heads without trouble is to get rid of sub contractors. This is the preferred way for companies such as Eskom, Telkom etc. Bottom line is, it is happening. We will have to see how long it is going to take for this trend to play itself out. G
Bring it on! (deflation, that is), but I am afraid that it isnt happening (yet, if ever).
@Anon,
Do not confuse a tempory fall in some prices, especially real estate, luxury goods and non-essentials, with deflation (or even a deflationary spiral). The Argus shopping basket is an average and an average only means anyting if you read it in the context of price variations (deviations) over the same period. Average price isnt lower just because the number is smaller.
And even if you calculated a true difference (which you didnt) and even if there really was a cheaper shopping basket (which there isnt), then it hardly means the onset of deflation, or even lower food prices in future.
Deflation is long term (many years, like Japan after the massive boom early 90s.
Especially in SA where we have a low economic output, even in 'good times', the risk is extremely low.
Most fear about deflation comes from those who remember the Great Depression. Highy unlikely to ever happen again.
Deflate me see the Life section, page 24 top right. Food prices lower now than they were a year ago. And the whole point is that it is an average of a range of ordinary goods which have been getting steadily cheaper for several months, despite the convoluted and incorrect argument of Peter. That is officially called deflation, mate, no question.
'That is officially called deflation, mate, no question' sounds like you've made up your mind. Like I said, believing is seeing ... another perfect example.
Pity your firm belief cannot be substantiated on any facts - read the last weeks posts to see your delusion.
The union Solidarity (the largest independant trade union in SA) has announced yesterday day that food inflation topped CPI by nearly 6%. That's 14% food inflation July 2008 to July 2009!!! FOURteen Percent !!!
Anyway, Allshare back above 25000 and no sign of letting down. Despite CJs cosmic induction theory - and trends others pointed out that actually made sense at the time. Just shows how unpredictable the economy is.
Looks like the days of cheap things (houses!) have come and gone. Wish it was different, but thats just how it is.
Dont be so hasty Peter, even Nouriel Roubini has warned of a double dip recession and he is one of the few mainstream economists who saw this thing coming....and ergo most people would listen to him. I say we talk again in a month or 2.
...Besides if this thing has legs lets see the raising of interest rates?
"Average price isnt lower just because the number is smaller."
Say what? If the number expressing the price is lower then the price isn't lower? That's a new kind of logic to me.
On a more general note regarding Peter: can we all please stop feeding this troll? He constantly takes antagonistic stances which he tries to back with the large amounts of text that most of the time doesn't make any sense. I know it is often tempting to refute silly things that he says but, remember, you won't be able to convince him of anything. So the only thing you will achieve by this is to bloat the otherwise concise and interesting discussion. And, it seems, this is exactly what Peter wants.
@ Peter, you say: "Looks like the days of cheap things (houses!) have come and gone. Wish it was different, but thats just how it is."
Please explain to me how "cheap things" can become expensive things, and then stay that way forever, when it requires people to afford those expensive things. You seem to live in a world unaffected by what people can actually afford, where prices are absolute and supply and demand catch up.
Let's get back to basics here. Surely if the vast majority of first-time buyers can't afford the properties they want, and the supply chain is choked off at the very first link, prices must fall to come in line with what people can afford?
Yes, I know in South Africa "it's different" - and God knows our car industry has been milking the suckers dry for decades - but I don't buy this rigid idea of prices.
No need to get personal - just dont talk rubbish and expect it to go unchallenged. Try to understand what I say about deflation and not take it personal.
To illustrate one of your serious delusions, put there probably by the media: you said 'Say what? If the number expressing the price is lower then the price isn't lower? That's a new kind of logic to me.' - Now I never said that, you reason like that because you dont understand. (although there are actually instances when this can be true too) I said 'Average price isnt lower just because the number is smaller.' Now listen carefully, this is how it really works: When you calculate averages to compare a REAL or a MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE, then you can only do so in the context of the VARIATION in the values of each population (or basket). An average is meaningless unless variation is included in your calculation.
I quote times and sources, actual figures and definitions - you make statements based on nothing, but your idea of me. So you decide who 'takes antagonistic stances which he tries to back with the large amounts of text that most of the time doesn't make any sense' ... You decide who says 'silly things' based on thin air.
Easy calling names when you do not have any premise for your thoughts.
Thanks for allowing me to explain "Looks like the days of cheap things (houses!) have come and gone. Wish it was different, but thats just how it is.". By this I meant that there was some good opportunity during the last 3 years or so to buy assets (cars with lots of extras, new houses at 30% discount, mortgages at prime less 2, building material at cost or even less, really cool electronics for 1/2 price) all at hugely reduced prices. And by 'thats just how it is' I meant that I cannot find the evidence that many (including some on this blog) speaks of. Where is the regression into 'affordability'?
You are right about getting back to basics. And I say lets!!! First time buyers cant afford houses (but I there is another aspect on why - not just overpricing), I agree that our cars are ridiculously priced. But prices do not fall. I dont know why cheap things become expensive, maybe demand, maybe limited supply, I dont know - but a single tomato cost 3 bucks and thats the price we pay. Last month we compared coke - have you seen the prices now!?
How can you then say 'You seem to live in a world unaffected by what people can actually afford, where prices are absolute and supply and demand catch up' when inflation is still at 7.5% and a grotty 2 bed flat costs R1mil?
@ Anonymous Coward you were spot on re Peter @ Peter you are a troll whos arguments seem to exist for the point of just being antagonistic. Your arguments are so convoluted even my huge analytical brain often cannot follow the logic....or lack there of.
"I dont know why cheap things become expensive, maybe demand, maybe limited supply, I dont know - but a single tomato cost 3 bucks and thats the price we pay."
That is just laughable, and I'm afraid your last shred of respectability went with it. I don't think you're a troll but I do think you're incredibly confused and I can't be bothered to argue with this kind of rubbish any more.
Actually talking vehicles, the law of supply and demand does'nt seem to apply in SA,less demand more supply,so why DON'T car prices deflate in SA ?? I don't get it. Any explanations ??
Talk about believing is seeing - a typical basket of food is down on price (including week-to-week variation) to where it was a year ago. The is zero inflation year on year and significant deflation over a 6 month period. Official CPI will lag this because it is more retrospective. A typical new car is being offered with all sorts of perks and price cuts, used car values have collapsed, house prices are down significantly, especially if you include auctions, net salaries are down because of retrenchments (in SA and around the world), and more job losses to come. An underperforming state institution (eskom) has raised prices, sure, but they are not market sensitive. But watch how that price rise will itself cause behaviour change to avoid the increase. There is some while to go with net deflation! Solidarity must be cherry picking on food prices, Argus is unbiased. CPI must come down quite quickly now into the inflation band, meaning likely pressure on Marcus to reduce interest rates, and possible downward pressure on rand. It will still take a few years before consumers can build up capacity to borrow though...
So your last posts show concrete facts or proof of deflation how again???
Mmmmmm, you go boys (girls)! Like not adressing the facts I put before you. Ignorance is bliss and, like Anon Cow, your arguments are based on nothing but air and therefore the comments are meaningless opinions. Your good opinions yes, but meaningless.
I suggest that you forget about your feelings when evaluating the boom/bust and look at the numbers if you want to know whats going on. Unless, of course, you want to believe what you do just based on blind faith - your choice. Believing is seeing!
@ Anon 2
The kind of explanations on everything going up in price, not just cars, are usually biased towards talking them down etc. and good ones seldom exist. If they ever come down there will be loads of explanations, dont worry.
@ Anon 3
Prices could very well be set by a monopoly and/or collusion. But careful, you be called a conspiracy theorist or worse. It is true that there is enough willing buyers to keep those collusionists keep their rates.
cheap things become expensive because purchasing power of money is diluted...a brick still requires roughly the same input in materials and labour as it did 50 years ago...yet the price has doubled many times over. So what has changed..the brick, or the money?
how is purchasing power diluted? By the creation of too much money by governments and banks without the goods and work to back it in value....hence too much money chasing too few goods.
its a very simple equation...prices dont rise, money gets weaker.
And because its government that controls the money 'creation (supply) and know what deflation would do to large companies and banks (bankruptcy!), it (government) will continue to 'create' even more money causing it to get even weaker still.
There is the additional issue of limited resources - over and above the rand getting weaker all the time
This one got crowded off Fin24, thought it was worth another airing. Some highlights:
Serious buyers, said du Plessis [estate agency CEO], have to accept reductions of 10% to 15% or even 20% on the 2006/2007 prices – or waste their own and their agent's time.
"In another case, a Southern Suburbs seller with a home priced at just under R4m was unable to get any offers within R600k of his price, despite keeping the house on the market for a whole year.
"Instead of accepting a reduction to get a sale, he then contacted another agent, who agreed to list the property at R700k more than the original price.
"I really do have a problem with any agent who behaves in this totally irrational way. Presumably they hope that an ignorant or reckless buyer will turn up – but in my experience that almost never happens. What can they therefore be hoping to achieve? In this case, they advertised the house as a 'new release' which was a complete deception."
Full story at http://www.property24.com/Property24/news/FullArticle.aspx?ArticleId=10292
And we can go further and state that if you take a loan of a few million bucks and buy a few fancy things...it might look to the average person that you are doing really well..but its not really the case.
Same thing with bank bailouts and massive government spending in the US...is it a recovery or just liquidity supplied by the Fed courtesy of the sheeple taxpayer?
Where is the SA treasury going for the billions of tax shortfall this year?
1) Upward pressure on interest rates of existing Government bonds 2) New Government bonds 3) Instructing the SA Mint & Bank Note Companies to oil the presses 4) Selling some of its gold and foreign currency reserves 5) Some more privatisation
Lets' also add a point #6 to the above. 6) Add more to our current outstanding loan from the IMF (like we did to buy swedish planes and german ships & submarines.) It's ok,don't worry,our children and grandchildren can foot the repayments. What an albatross we've hung around their necks.
Interesting link on George Ures site yesterday. He reiterated what I believe to be the case....
On the stock market:
* "We're in terrible shape. That's what the fundamentals tell me. I can't explain the stock market."
video link below..
Retail maven Howard Davidowitz paid another visit to Tech Ticker this week. And despite signs of improvement in consumer confidence and retail stocks rising, Davidowitz is steadfast in his belief the consumer is dead.
Rather than summarize, let me just highlight some of his best one-liners: On retail:
* "The retail business is terrible... It's almost all negative." * "We're going to close hundreds of thousands of stores."
On the consumer:
* "They’re still over leveraged, they're losing jobs, their credit has been cut back."
On America:
* "We are in the tank forever. As a country we are out of control, we're in a death spiral."
On the stock market:
* "We're in terrible shape. That's what the fundamentals tell me. I can't explain the stock market."
But it's not all gloom and doom, believe it or not. Davidowitz, who runs a retail consulting firm Davidowitz and Associates, thinks certain discount retailers, grocers, drug store chains and a select few department stores can survive and prosper in the future.
Most notably he likes the "extreme discounters" like Family Dollar, Dollar Tree (which was up almost 5% Tuesday after the company raised its outlook) and 99 Cents Only Stores. And, in the department store sector, he says, Kohl's will "be the only winner" because of their cost controls. (Davidowitz has no positions in stocks mentioned.)
30 comments:
Deflation again - see this weeks weekend Argus shopping basket - prices are down year on year. No need to go get your receipts from 12 months ago - Argus is doing it for you. Interesting, for once in our lives saving really makes sense - and a pathetic interest rate of 7% in the bank is actually doing rather well, in a deflation environment! What happens next to the value of money, I wonder. There will be intense pressure from the left to decrease interest rates in SA once CPI starts to reflect the reality of price drops. I'd hate to be a retailer with long term stock right now (ie car dealer or property developer)
Anon, where in the Argus should I look? Can't seem to find the basket bits.
Talking deflation, I wonder when SA employers are going to start to deflate employee salaries as is currently happening in the USA ?
1) A 4 day work week.
2) Employers asking employees to work the 5th day without pay.(As per British Airways)
2) Furloughs every month.
3) Taking cumpolsory unpaid leave.
4) Employees accepting time off in lieu,instead of time and a half and double time for overtime worked.
Interesting times ahead :)
Deflation is a nasty challenge for any country. Let's all hope that it is a very temporary event.
An emerging market country cannot afford a deflationary environment...
Deflating salaries is very dangerous in our country; our labor unions will not allow it.
As an employer I do not fill vacant posts. Form a staff contingent of 25 people we are now down to 18. The other way of cutting heads without trouble is to get rid of sub contractors. This is the preferred way for companies such as Eskom, Telkom etc.
Bottom line is, it is happening. We will have to see how long it is going to take for this trend to play itself out.
G
Bring it on! (deflation, that is), but I am afraid that it isnt happening (yet, if ever).
@Anon,
Do not confuse a tempory fall in some prices, especially real estate, luxury goods and non-essentials, with deflation (or even a deflationary spiral). The Argus shopping basket is an average and an average only means anyting if you read it in the context of price variations (deviations) over the same period. Average price isnt lower just because the number is smaller.
And even if you calculated a true difference (which you didnt) and even if there really was a cheaper shopping basket (which there isnt), then it hardly means the onset of deflation, or even lower food prices in future.
Deflation is long term (many years, like Japan after the massive boom early 90s.
Especially in SA where we have a low economic output, even in 'good times', the risk is extremely low.
Most fear about deflation comes from those who remember the Great Depression. Highy unlikely to ever happen again.
@ad,
and thank you for the Bilderberg link.
Deflate me see the Life section, page 24 top right. Food prices lower now than they were a year ago. And the whole point is that it is an average of a range of ordinary goods which have been getting steadily cheaper for several months, despite the convoluted and incorrect argument of Peter. That is officially called deflation, mate, no question.
@Anon,
'That is officially called deflation, mate, no question' sounds like you've made up your mind. Like I said, believing is seeing ... another perfect example.
Pity your firm belief cannot be substantiated on any facts - read the last weeks posts to see your delusion.
The union Solidarity (the largest independant trade union in SA) has announced yesterday day that food inflation topped CPI by nearly 6%. That's 14% food inflation July 2008 to July 2009!!!
FOURteen Percent !!!
Anyway, Allshare back above 25000 and no sign of letting down. Despite CJs cosmic induction theory - and trends others pointed out that actually made sense at the time. Just shows how unpredictable the economy is.
Looks like the days of cheap things (houses!) have come and gone. Wish it was different, but thats just how it is.
Dont be so hasty Peter, even Nouriel Roubini has warned of a double dip recession and he is one of the few mainstream economists who saw this thing coming....and ergo most people would listen to him. I say we talk again in a month or 2.
...Besides if this thing has legs lets see the raising of interest rates?
peter said:
"Average price isnt lower just because the number is smaller."
Say what? If the number expressing the price is lower then the price isn't lower? That's a new kind of logic to me.
On a more general note regarding Peter: can we all please stop feeding this troll? He constantly takes antagonistic stances which he tries to back with the large amounts of text that most of the time doesn't make any sense. I know it is often tempting to refute silly things that he says but, remember, you won't be able to convince him of anything. So the only thing you will achieve by this is to bloat the otherwise concise and interesting discussion. And, it seems, this is exactly what Peter wants.
Anonymous Coward
@ Peter, you say: "Looks like the days of cheap things (houses!) have come and gone. Wish it was different, but thats just how it is."
Please explain to me how "cheap things" can become expensive things, and then stay that way forever, when it requires people to afford those expensive things. You seem to live in a world unaffected by what people can actually afford, where prices are absolute and supply and demand catch up.
Let's get back to basics here. Surely if the vast majority of first-time buyers can't afford the properties they want, and the supply chain is choked off at the very first link, prices must fall to come in line with what people can afford?
Yes, I know in South Africa "it's different" - and God knows our car industry has been milking the suckers dry for decades - but I don't buy this rigid idea of prices.
@ Anon,
No need to get personal - just dont talk rubbish and expect it to go unchallenged. Try to understand what I say about deflation and not take it personal.
To illustrate one of your serious delusions, put there probably by the media: you said 'Say what? If the number expressing the price is lower then the price isn't lower? That's a new kind of logic to me.' - Now I never said that, you reason like that because you dont understand. (although there are actually instances when this can be true too)
I said 'Average price isnt lower just because the number is smaller.' Now listen carefully, this is how it really works: When you calculate averages to compare a REAL or a MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE, then you can only do so in the context of the VARIATION in the values of each population (or basket). An average is meaningless unless variation is included in your calculation.
I quote times and sources, actual figures and definitions - you make statements based on nothing, but your idea of me. So you decide who 'takes antagonistic stances which he tries to back with the large amounts of text that most of the time doesn't make any sense' ... You decide who says 'silly things' based on thin air.
Easy calling names when you do not have any premise for your thoughts.
Believing is Seeing ...
@ Bean Counter
Thanks for allowing me to explain "Looks like the days of cheap things (houses!) have come and gone. Wish it was different, but thats just how it is.". By this I meant that there was some good opportunity during the last 3 years or so to buy assets (cars with lots of extras, new houses at 30% discount, mortgages at prime less 2, building material at cost or even less, really cool electronics for 1/2 price) all at hugely reduced prices. And by 'thats just how it is' I meant that I cannot find the evidence that many (including some on this blog) speaks of. Where is the regression into 'affordability'?
You are right about getting back to basics. And I say lets!!! First time buyers cant afford houses (but I there is another aspect on why - not just overpricing), I agree that our cars are ridiculously priced. But prices do not fall. I dont know why cheap things become expensive, maybe demand, maybe limited supply, I dont know - but a single tomato cost 3 bucks and thats the price we pay. Last month we compared coke - have you seen the prices now!?
How can you then say 'You seem to live in a world unaffected by what people can actually afford, where prices are absolute and supply and demand catch up' when inflation is still at 7.5% and a grotty 2 bed flat costs R1mil?
@ Anonymous Coward
you were spot on re Peter
@ Peter you are a troll whos arguments seem to exist for the point of just being antagonistic. Your arguments are so convoluted even my huge analytical brain often cannot follow the logic....or lack there of.
@ Peter:
"I dont know why cheap things become expensive, maybe demand, maybe limited supply, I dont know - but a single tomato cost 3 bucks and thats the price we pay."
That is just laughable, and I'm afraid your last shred of respectability went with it. I don't think you're a troll but I do think you're incredibly confused and I can't be bothered to argue with this kind of rubbish any more.
Actually talking vehicles, the law of supply and demand does'nt seem to apply in SA,less demand more supply,so why DON'T car prices deflate in SA ??
I don't get it.
Any explanations ??
It's like the Diamond trade - the market is cornered and the prices are set by a monopoly and/or collusion.
Deflation again ??
31.3% electricity price increase.
What deflation ?
Talk about believing is seeing - a typical basket of food is down on price (including week-to-week variation) to where it was a year ago. The is zero inflation year on year and significant deflation over a 6 month period. Official CPI will lag this because it is more retrospective. A typical new car is being offered with all sorts of perks and price cuts, used car values have collapsed, house prices are down significantly, especially if you include auctions, net salaries are down because of retrenchments (in SA and around the world), and more job losses to come. An underperforming state institution (eskom) has raised prices, sure, but they are not market sensitive. But watch how that price rise will itself cause behaviour change to avoid the increase. There is some while to go with net deflation! Solidarity must be cherry picking on food prices, Argus is unbiased.
CPI must come down quite quickly now into the inflation band, meaning likely pressure on Marcus to reduce interest rates, and possible downward pressure on rand. It will still take a few years before consumers can build up capacity to borrow though...
@ Bean Counter, bb flames
So your last posts show concrete facts or proof of deflation how again???
Mmmmmm, you go boys (girls)! Like not adressing the facts I put before you. Ignorance is bliss and, like Anon Cow, your arguments are based on nothing but air and therefore the comments are meaningless opinions. Your good opinions yes, but meaningless.
I suggest that you forget about your feelings when evaluating the boom/bust and look at the numbers if you want to know whats going on. Unless, of course, you want to believe what you do just based on blind faith - your choice. Believing is seeing!
@ Anon 2
The kind of explanations on everything going up in price, not just cars, are usually biased towards talking them down etc. and good ones seldom exist. If they ever come down there will be loads of explanations, dont worry.
@ Anon 3
Prices could very well be set by a monopoly and/or collusion. But careful, you be called a conspiracy theorist or worse. It is true that there is enough willing buyers to keep those collusionists keep their rates.
@ Anon 5
Of course Argus is unbiased ...
cheap things become expensive because purchasing power of money is diluted...a brick still requires roughly the same input in materials and labour as it did 50 years ago...yet the price has doubled many times over. So what has changed..the brick, or the money?
how is purchasing power diluted? By the creation of too much money by governments and banks without the goods and work to back it in value....hence too much money chasing too few goods.
its a very simple equation...prices dont rise, money gets weaker.
@ Anon 2
And because its government that controls the money 'creation (supply) and know what deflation would do to large companies and banks (bankruptcy!), it (government) will continue to 'create' even more money causing it to get even weaker still.
There is the additional issue of limited resources - over and above the rand getting weaker all the time
Everything is getting cheaper. Yeah right!
This one got crowded off Fin24, thought it was worth another airing. Some highlights:
Serious buyers, said du Plessis [estate agency CEO], have to accept reductions of 10% to 15% or even 20% on the 2006/2007 prices – or waste their own and their agent's time.
"In another case, a Southern Suburbs seller with a home priced at just under R4m was unable to get any offers within R600k of his price, despite keeping the house on the market for a whole year.
"Instead of accepting a reduction to get a sale, he then contacted another agent, who agreed to list the property at R700k more than the original price.
"I really do have a problem with any agent who behaves in this totally irrational way. Presumably they hope that an ignorant or reckless buyer will turn up – but in my experience that almost never happens. What can they therefore be hoping to achieve? In this case, they advertised the house as a 'new release' which was a complete deception."
Full story at http://www.property24.com/Property24/news/FullArticle.aspx?ArticleId=10292
You tell, 'em, boy! Ah, when thieves fall out...
Exactly Peter,
And we can go further and state that if you take a loan of a few million bucks and buy a few fancy things...it might look to the average person that you are doing really well..but its not really the case.
Same thing with bank bailouts and massive government spending in the US...is it a recovery or just liquidity supplied by the Fed courtesy of the sheeple taxpayer?
Where is the SA treasury going for the billions of tax shortfall this year?
1) Upward pressure on interest rates of existing Government bonds
2) New Government bonds
3) Instructing the SA Mint & Bank Note Companies to oil the presses
4) Selling some of its gold and foreign currency reserves
5) Some more privatisation
Lets' also add a point #6 to the above.
6) Add more to our current outstanding loan from the IMF (like we did to buy swedish planes and german ships & submarines.)
It's ok,don't worry,our children and grandchildren can foot the repayments.
What an albatross we've hung around their necks.
Interesting link on George Ures site yesterday. He reiterated what I believe to be the case....
On the stock market:
* "We're in terrible shape. That's what the fundamentals tell me. I can't explain the stock market."
video link below..
Retail maven Howard Davidowitz paid another visit to Tech Ticker this week. And despite signs of improvement in consumer confidence and retail stocks rising, Davidowitz is steadfast in his belief the consumer is dead.
Rather than summarize, let me just highlight some of his best one-liners:
On retail:
* "The retail business is terrible... It's almost all negative."
* "We're going to close hundreds of thousands of stores."
On the consumer:
* "They’re still over leveraged, they're losing jobs, their credit has been cut back."
On America:
* "We are in the tank forever. As a country we are out of control, we're in a death spiral."
On the stock market:
* "We're in terrible shape. That's what the fundamentals tell me. I can't explain the stock market."
But it's not all gloom and doom, believe it or not. Davidowitz, who runs a retail consulting firm Davidowitz and Associates, thinks certain discount retailers, grocers, drug store chains and a select few department stores can survive and prosper in the future.
Most notably he likes the "extreme discounters" like Family Dollar, Dollar Tree (which was up almost 5% Tuesday after the company raised its outlook) and 99 Cents Only Stores. And, in the department store sector, he says, Kohl's will "be the only winner" because of their cost controls. (Davidowitz has no positions in stocks mentioned.)
http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/312114/%E2%80%9CIn-the-Tank-Forever%E2%80%9D:-U.S.-Consumers,-Retailers-in-a-
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