25 July 2009

Saturday Open Thread

It's time for the Saturday open thread, which is incidentally the 600th post of this blog.

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

I find this blog a real waste of time. It was most probably published by a person who doesnt even own property.

People like him and CJ dont own property so why would someone want to take advice from these people?
These people are angry for missing the boat and now have to rent for the rest of their lives.

Boooooo-friggin-hoooooo...deal with it and leave the money making to the experts.

Jules said...

It's beyond funny how some people assume they actually know another person's finances and circumstances... despite the fact that they are total strangers.

Assumptions made, without any facts, usually leads to a false conclusion.

We can't possibly know the background of the people on this blog. There could be several losers and there could be some astute minds.

BTW, not owning something doesn't mean you can't see or say something is overpriced. For example: I don't own a Porsche Boxster car but I can tell you that (in $ terms) it is waaaaay over priced in SA compared the price in North America.

And my brain tells me that property in Cape Town is over priced. Generally speaking, the market agrees: that is why prices HAVE come down marginally in many areas the past 12 months or stayed flat. There is precious little price growth in most of the West Cape region.

It wont take much more for the next 2 to 3 years to become a very dead period for the real estate market.

CJ said...

To Anonymous

The blog is run by CT Bubble - it is about Cape Town property ( and SA's) being in a bubble and then crashing.

It started way before the mainstream media admitted there was a bubble or a problem.

The crash and financial collapse that would follow has happened exactly as several of us warned.

I am a 'potential' property buyer. But I am certainly not going to buy an overpriced house just because people like you are feeling the pain as your properties go into freefall.

There is no "missing the boat" - property is like the Table mountain cable car - it goes in an up cycle then comes down again. When it returns to the bottom I will be happy to buy a ticket.

If you are not enjoying the ride down, then you should have read this blog a few years back and heeded our warnings.

Anonymous said...

@Jules

Nobody is assuming anything but I bet you that neither the publisher nor CJ own property. Why would a person looking to invest in property want their opinion? It like asking a person who never owns a Porsche their opinion on the marque or certain model. How could they give you a informative opinion?

@CJ

Do you own property and if so, what do you own and where?

I am 35 years old and own 9 properties all paid off. I have bought all but one of these properties in the last 12 months and paid them off.

My success is attributed to me attending sheriff and private auctions day in and day out buying at a certain price and selling them on for a tidy profit. I didnt sit back and cry about the state of the market but instead went out there to milk it for all its worth.

I too had the mindset last year that property prices are crazy and who in their right mind would buy let alone could make money in this market.

But let me tell you that the market is still very active albeit on lower sales levels. No matter what the interest rate is, people have this natural urge to buy and own their own property.

I admire, on the one hand, blogs like these highlighting the fact that property prices are out of reach of the average person. I do also get upset at the notion that property is a bad buy at this point in time.

Property is never a bad investment if you buy at the right price or invest for a period of 5 years and longer.

In my opinion, prices have bottomed out. And the factors that play a major role in the market like finance and demand are all starting to return.Banks have come to the party and are starting to grant 90% loans on property that is priced right. Demand has returned in a small way in that people can afford the payments at the current interest rate.

The attendences at sheriff and private auctions has skyrocketed with astutue property investors falling over themselves to purchasse property knowing full well the market has turned.

Anonymous said...

Hey Anonymous,

So you are buying properties at auctions and then re-selling them to people who couldn't buy them at auctions themselves (probably because they need a bond). In other words you are a property speculator.

If that's the case then I wouldn't trust a single word you are saying about property market. You see, it is in your best interest to peddle the idea that market is recovering, prices are going up any minute now, and, generally, property is a good investment. All this is good for your business and therefore you would say it whether you actually believed this to be true or not. Simple as that.

Anonymous Coward

peter said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
peter said...

Hey Anonymous,

You ARE the average person that you talk about. And Ill tell you why. Owning nondecript props at your age is hardly something to boast about, most do - but if it does it for your ego to let others know, hey, go for it. At least in that sense it adds value to your life.

What I actually want to say is that your opinion on the property market is based on nothing but emotion. Astute property investors definately dont fall over themselves to attend auctions. You plagiarised this bit of sensationalism from so called property gurus who make their money from selling people like you their 'techniques' and other self help literature.

People's 'natural urge to buy' wont cut it - they need the finance and they cant get it. And even if you bought 'at the right price' in 2004, you'll be stuffed if you kept it for 5 years and try to sell now. Silly statement that 5 year thing!

CJ said...

It is quite simple Mr anonymous speculator.

I don't need to be a property flipper to make money. Nor do I have aspirations to be a slum lord. I am bright enough to make my money in other ways.

I would like to buy a house to live in. I presently rent. In fact I rent a nice house I really enjoy living in. Why don't I buy it. Because the monthly costs to buy are 3 times more than the monthly costs to rent.

So I rent. And the house will fall in price because it is overvalued. When the ratios look normal, I will buy.

Simple really. And until then I will continue to explain the maths and logic behind my decisions because the property hype merchants certainly won't tell you.

Of course no one has to listen. I have only my track record of predictions over the last 3 years to add credibility to my ideas.

So far all my predictions have been spot on. Maybe I am wrong now. We will see.

Matthew said...

Quick question, if this blog is such a waste of time, why bother to comment on it? Need someone to tell about your brilliance?

Anyway, can anyone recommend somewhere to find some rentals in Cape Town? Preferably Atlantic Seaboard?

Anonymous said...

@ Peter .....if pulling in R45 000 in rental per month from 'non-descript' properties is something to laugh about then you have rocks in your head.

As for auctions and astute property investors, you clearly dont know what you are talking about. I advise that you get your head out of the sand and attend a sheriffs or bank distress auction and see for yourself who is attending.

Astute property investors are falling over themselves to buy property as now is the time to buy if there ever was one. These people know that there are bargains to be had at these auctions and are milking them for all its worth.

Nett rental returns being achieved are in excess of 10% per annum on most properties being sold at these auctions beating the banks rate by a couple of points. Add in the fact that you are paying 2004 prices for these properties and its a win win situation.

I am not only a property speculator/flipper but also a investor ploughing my profits back into property and keeping ones that give me the best return.

And I'l be the first to admit that prices are currently still artificially high.

CJ is right in saying that prices will drop. But only in real terms and not nominally. A R1 million apartment in Sea Point will probably still be selling at R1 million in 2010. So in effect, if your salary increases 10% year on year, you will be closer to buying that dream home in real terms.

Contrary to what most renters think, prices wont drop nominally by 30-40% meaning that the R1 million flat wont be selling for R500 000 next year.

So who knows, maybe you renters can afford to own property in future...that is if your boss gives you that salary increase.

peter said...

Anonymous said...,

Glad to see that you admit your folly with that silly 5 year thingy.

Throwing figures around does not mean that you know anything about property, it means that you need to grow up.

I attended several auctions recently - this is exactly why I say that property investors are definitely not keen to buy there. All I saw there were some people who read somewhere that auction props are cheap, but then end up paying more than MARKET (already overpriced!) price when all costs are included. Inexperienced and naive wannabe property investors burning their fingers. They only buy there once - you never see them at these auctions again...

Your bargains-at-auctions dream has been flaunted by so many con artists its not even funny anymore. And the only person making money is the sheriff/auctioneers - and they are getting paid by YOU.

peter said...

Anonymous said...,

Oh, by the way - you'll cry when I show you what you get out from your 'pull' after operational expenses, opportunity costs etc. have been deducted ... fisherman's tales what you get out - I hear them from every landlord.

You'll see that you are giving one step ahead and two back. Dont let your name on the deed certificate blind you - even if it does something for your ego.

M said...

I tend to agree with Peter re auctions. I have attanded a couple myself recently, and although properies were "sold", they were often subject to the sellers approval, or didn't seem to be great bargains.

I have emailed Auction Alliance & Claremart asking them to publish how many properties they actually sell per auction i.e. what is their hit rate / percentage. Also what price they sell for + commission i.e. cost to buyer. No reply as yet.

I've no doubt there are bargains at auctions. But if you look around in the marketplace, there are also bargains to be had. One doesn't have to put in an offer = to the seller's asking price.

CJ said...

So give us an example Anonymous of one of these 10% deals - price of house, area, size of house and rental.

If there are so many of them then this won't be hard for you to do.

I am getting very suspicious of these auctions - if it was "sell at best price, end of story", I could imagine there would be potential bargains, but instead we get "reserve prices", "price subject to owners confirmation", and auctioneers creating fake bids to push up prices. It all seems just like one more property con trick for gullible suckers.

Anonymous said...

The stench of bitterness hangs in the air on this blog.

It seems people like Peter are bitter and angry at being left behind in life and still not being able to afford his own property.

Well, maybe he should have headed his parents advice and studied harder instead of smoking those spliffs behind the garage.

Anonymous said...

@ Anonymous
The stench of spite and gloating hang over your posts. Do you have to tell women you're a rich property investor to get laid? Maybe if you had joined in for a puff behind the garage you would have developed social skills and have a life instead of several overpriced houses.

Anonymous said...

stupid motherfuckers

Anonymous said...

Wahhahahahahahahahahahh!

Anonymous said...

Bitterness and jealousy doesnt make you any richer....loser!!!!

Anonymous said...

What do you call a yuppie being necklaced on his front lawn? Winner? The poor are going to eat you and your children, there aren't enough bullets in this country to stop that from happening.