21 June 2007

The Greater Fool Theory In Action

The Greater Fool Theory is the idea tha no matter how overpriced an asset is or how disconnected it's value from the unerlying fundamentals are, it's worth buying as long as there is a greater fool than yourself willing to buy it. And here's a perfect example on sale for R1 050 000:
...remember that it is predicted by the banks that the value of houses will double over the next four years, this house in four years will be worth R2,160,000:00 not even interest in the banks can match that, and what will it cost you to gain that growth, call me and I will tell you. At present the property has a tenant at R4,500:00 pm rental income.


Wow! In four years it will double in price to over R2 million! So... uh... why are you selling? You're throwing away R250 000 a year in appreciation!

Maybe it's because you're earning R4 500 a month in rent. With a purchase price of R1 050 000 your potential buyer is barely making 5% ROI with R700 000 deposit just to break even at cashflow. And if the price doubles? I suspect the next buyer after that will have bit of a hard time suddenly doubling the rent...












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R12301.54R-7801.54R-93618.54
R105000R11071.39R-6571.39R-78856.69-75.10%
R210000R9841.24R-5341.24R-64094.83-30.52%
R315000R8611.08R-4111.08R-49332.98-15.66%
R420000R7380.93R-2880.93R-34571.12-8.23%
R525000R6150.77R-1650.77R-19809.27-3.77%
R630000R4920.62R-420.62R-5047.42-0.80%
R735000R3690.46R809.54R9714.441.32%
R840000R2460.31R2039.69R24476.292.91%
R945000R1230.15R3269.85R39238.154.15%
R1050000R0.00R4500.00R54000.005.14%

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

From CJ

... or, maybe the banks might be telling us little fibs and our over priced property may just drop by 25 % over the next 4 years ... so buy the house now on a full bond, hit the tenant with a 10% rent increase each year, sell in 4 years time ... great, how much cash have we made .... well, our "investor" has LOST about R750,000 ... ie he would be R750,000 richer in 4 years time if he DOESN'T buy the house !!!!