28 February 2008

Rent Vs Buy: The Square - And The Race Is On!

Here's a bachelor flat for sale in the Square in Buitankant Street for R625 000 with a rental income of R2800. If you buy it with a full bond your payments will be R5 200 more than what the rental can achieve. Here's the return on investment and payments you can expect:












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R7999.99R-5199.99R-62399.83
R62500R7199.99R-4399.99R-52799.85-84.48%
R125000R6399.99R-3599.99R-43199.87-34.56%
R187500R5599.99R-2799.99R-33599.88-17.92%
R250000R4799.99R-1999.99R-23999.90-9.60%
R312500R3999.99R-1199.99R-14399.92-4.61%
R375000R3199.99R-399.99R-4799.93-1.28%
R437500R2400.00R400.00R4800.051.10%
R500000R1600.00R1200.00R14400.032.88%
R562500R800.00R2000.00R24000.024.27%
R625000R0.00R2800.00R33600.005.38%

Sub 6% ROI with a 70% downpayment needed just to break even on cashflow. Not exactly the most scintillating investment is it?

Now here's where it gets interesting. Back in December 2007 we spotlighted another bachelor flat in The Square for R635 000 with a rental of R3 300 a month, which had actually been on sale since May 2007 with an initial selling price of R570 000, which is still on sale today nearly a year later. Now add to it another bachelor flat for a similar price in the same block (although slightly bigger but with a worse rent) and I wonder how long it will take to sell either. The race (to the bottom) is on!

27 February 2008

Rent Vs Buy: Mutal Heights - Cape Town CBD

Mutual heights is a development in the Cape Town CBD that is packed full of overpriced lofts with terrible rental yields. For instance here's a loft apartment for sale for R825 000 and which rents for R3 500pm. If you had to get a 100% bond your payments would be R10 559/month, R7 000 more than the rental you could expect to achieve. Here's the rest of the return on investment and payments you can expect:












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R10559.98R-8059.98R-96719.78
R82500R9503.98R-7003.98R-84047.80-101.88%
R165000R8447.99R-5947.99R-71375.82-43.26%
R247500R7391.99R-4891.99R-58703.85-23.72%
R330000R6335.99R-3835.99R-46031.87-13.95%
R412500R5279.99R-2779.99R-33359.89-8.09%
R495000R4223.99R-1723.99R-20687.91-4.18%
R577500R3167.99R-667.99R-8015.93-1.39%
R660000R2112.00R388.00R4656.040.71%
R742500R1056.00R1444.00R17328.022.33%
R825000R0.00R2500.00R30000.003.64%

Yow! 3.64%!? That's even worse then De Waterkant! And this is before rates, maintenance and vacancy costs. The apartment is R59m^2 so I would guess rates/levies are at least R500 a month which would bring the max ROI down to a abysmal 2.91%.

Consumer Price Inflation Rises Again

The Consumer Price Inflation Index (CPIX) jumped again this quarter to 8.8% from January last year. The dreams of there being any rate cuts in 2008 are rapidly disappearing.

26 February 2008

Rent Vs. Buy: De Waterkant - Possibly The Worst I've Seen

De Waterkant has to be the worst suburb in the country when it comes to price/rent ratios. Anyone who has bought there in the last two-three years has been banking on nothing but capital appreciation, because the rentals, when compared to the purchasing price, are abysmal.

And here is possibly one of the worst examples I think I've seen. It's a 2 bed/2 bath 87m^2 apartment on sale for R2 195 000 and renting out for R6 000 a month. Yes you read that right, R6 000. To put that in perspective the monthly bond repayments will be R28 095 a month. And yet the ad still calls this an "Excellent investment". I wish I was kidding here folks.

So here is the (shockingly bad) return on investment you can expect. And remember this is the return before levies, maintenance and vacancy costs.













Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R28095.95R-22095.95R-265151.41
R219500R25286.36R-19286.36R-231436.27-105.44%
R439000R22476.76R-16476.76R-197721.13-45.04%
R658500R19667.17R-13667.17R-164005.99-24.91%
R878000R16857.57R-10857.57R-130290.85-14.84%
R1097500R14047.98R-8047.98R-96575.71-8.80%
R1317000R11238.38R-5238.38R-62860.56-4.77%
R1536500R8428.79R-2428.79R-29145.42-1.90%
R1756000R5619.19R380.81R4569.720.26%
R1975500R2809.60R3190.40R38284.861.94%
R2195000R0.00R6000.00R72000.003.28%


If you plonk down R2 195 000 in cash for this you can expect at best (that is if your other costs come to zero which is impossible) a return of 3.28%. That is about 4% below inflation and a whopping 6.5% what your money could earn if you just left it in a fixed deposit in the bank. You only break even on with a whopping 80% down payment.

Rent Vs. Buy: Tyger Valley

Here's a 2 bed apartment in Tyger Valley for sale for R850 000 with a rental of R3 600. Here's the ROI and payments you can expect:












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R10879.98R-7279.98R-87359.77
R85000R9791.98R-6191.98R-74303.79-87.42%
R170000R8703.98R-5103.98R-61247.82-36.03%
R255000R7615.99R-4015.99R-48191.84-18.90%
R340000R6527.99R-2927.99R-35135.86-10.33%
R425000R5439.99R-1839.99R-22079.89-5.20%
R510000R4351.99R-751.99R-9023.91-1.77%
R595000R3263.99R336.01R4032.070.68%
R680000R2176.00R1424.00R17088.052.51%
R765000R1088.00R2512.00R30144.023.94%
R850000R0.00R3600.00R43200.005.08%


5% ROI when paying for it in cash with 70% down payment needed to break even on cash flow. And this is before rates/levies, maintenance and vacancy costs.

25 February 2008

Rent Vs. Buy: Strand

One of the worst rent/buy ratios in Cape Town is in the Strand/Gordon's Bay region as reader Bean Counter often reminds us. Here's another example, a 2 bedroomed flat in Strand on sale for R421 000 (and that's negotiable) with a net rental of R1 350 (R1 800 - R450 in levies). Here's the return on investment and payments you can expect:












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R5388.79R-4038.79R-48465.49
R42100R4849.91R-3499.91R-41998.94-99.76%
R84200R4311.03R-2961.03R-35532.39-42.20%
R126300R3772.15R-2422.15R-29065.84-23.01%
R168400R3233.27R-1883.27R-22599.29-13.42%
R210500R2694.40R-1344.40R-16132.74-7.66%
R252600R2155.52R-805.52R-9666.19-3.83%
R294700R1616.64R-266.64R-3199.65-1.09%
R336800R1077.76R272.24R3266.900.97%
R378900R538.88R811.12R9733.452.57%
R421000R0.00R1350.00R16200.003.85%

3.85% return if you pay in cash, which is about 6% what you could expect from a fixed deposit. You break even on cash flow with a just under 80% deposit. No wonder the price is negotiable...

Forced Sale: Simon's Town

Now here's something interesting. This triple story McMansion in Simon's Town is an urgent sale that is just about to be taken over by the bank. It's "market value" is R7.5 million, but they're willing to accept R4.5 million for it. But even that seems not be enough as the ad now lists the price as being R3.6 million. You're getting it for 50% off!

22 February 2008

STOP THE PRESSES: SA Agents Say Property Prices Can Drop 20-30%

Here's some groundbreaking history. For the first time ever here is evidence of an SA agent saying property prices can drop in SA. This story from RealestateWeb is about property price drops in Johannesburg but Lew Geffen, who operates Sotheby's in SA, believes things can get a lot worse:

He predicts that prices could plummet as much as 20-30% in the next two to three years if interest rates do not come down and sentiment about the country remains negative.

I think someone is going to be getting a few angry phone calls about straying from the "party line".

If prices drop even 20% there is going to be a world of hurt. South African's have been extracting money from their mortgages at rapid pace, and if prices drop, hell even if they just don't grow and stagnate, those who did will be up shit creek without a paddle to put it mildly.

Rent Vs Buy: Durbanville

Here's a 4 bed house in Durbanville on sale for R2 400 000 but it pulls in a rent of R11 500. The rent might look impressive but compared to the payments on the bond and the return you can expect is actually not great.












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R30719.95R-19219.95R-230639.36
R240000R27647.95R-16147.95R-193775.42-80.74%
R480000R24575.96R-13075.96R-156911.49-32.69%
R720000R21503.96R-10003.96R-120047.55-16.67%
R960000R18431.97R-6931.97R-83183.61-8.66%
R1200000R15359.97R-3859.97R-46319.68-3.86%
R1440000R12287.98R-787.98R-9455.74-0.66%
R1680000R9215.98R2284.02R27408.191.63%
R1920000R6143.99R5356.01R64272.133.35%
R2160000R3071.99R8428.01R101136.064.68%
R2400000R0.00R11500.00R138000.005.75%

So a sub 6% ROI with R1 440 000 needed just to break even on cash flow and that's before rates and maintenance.

Another thing to contemplate here is that the tenant has signed a 12 month lease already. One of the golden rules for investing in property is tenant selection but here the new owner doesn't have that option.

21 February 2008

Rent Vs Buy: Claremont

Here's a 'perfect investment' bachelor flat in Claremont for sale for R635 000 with a 'potential' rental income of R3 000 a month. Levies are R543 a month so your net income is about R2 457 a month. The ROI will be:













Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R8127.99R-5670.99R-68051.83
R63500R7315.19R-4858.19R-58298.25-91.81%
R127000R6502.39R-4045.39R-48544.66-38.22%
R190500R5689.59R-3232.59R-38791.08-20.36%
R254000R4876.79R-2419.79R-29037.50-11.43%
R317500R4063.99R-1606.99R-19283.91-6.07%
R381000R3251.19R-794.19R-9530.33-2.50%
R444500R2438.40R18.60R223.250.05%
R508000R1625.60R831.40R9976.831.96%
R571500R812.80R1644.20R19730.423.45%
R635000R0.00R2457.00R29484.004.64%


A 70% deposit is required to break even and if you pay in cash you can look forward to 4.64% return on investment, or roughly 3.4% below inflation (and 5% below leaving your money in a fixed deposit). Truly a 'perfect investment' if ever there was one.

Rent Vs Buy: Kenilworth

Here's a 2 bed apartment in Kenilworth selling for R695 000 with a 'potential' rental of R3 500 (so it could be less but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt. Levies are +- R753 and rates are +- R191 a month which means your 'potential' net income will be closer to R2 556 a month. Here's the payments and return on investment table:












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R8895.98R-6339.98R-76079.81
R69500R8006.39R-5450.39R-65404.63-94.11%
R139000R7116.79R-4560.79R-54729.45-39.37%
R208500R6227.19R-3671.19R-44054.27-21.13%
R278000R5337.59R-2781.59R-33379.09-12.01%
R347500R4447.99R-1891.99R-22703.91-6.53%
R417000R3558.39R-1002.39R-12028.73-2.88%
R486500R2668.80R-112.80R-1353.54-0.28%
R556000R1779.20R776.80R9321.641.68%
R625500R889.60R1666.40R19996.823.20%
R695000R0.00R2556.00R30672.004.41%


80% downpayment required to break even on rentals and 4.41% return on income if you buy the whole thing in cash. That's only 5% or so below the returns you'd get if you just left your money in the bank.

20 February 2008

Rent Vs Buy: Durbanville

Here's an apartment for sale in Durbanville for R600 000 with a rental of R2 800.












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R7679.99R-4879.99R-58559.84
R60000R6911.99R-4111.99R-49343.86-82.24%
R120000R6143.99R-3343.99R-40127.87-33.44%
R180000R5375.99R-2575.99R-30911.89-17.17%
R240000R4607.99R-1807.99R-21695.90-9.04%
R300000R3839.99R-1039.99R-12479.92-4.16%
R360000R3071.99R-271.99R-3263.94-0.91%
R420000R2304.00R496.00R5952.051.42%
R480000R1536.00R1264.00R15168.033.16%
R540000R768.00R2032.00R24384.024.52%
R600000R0.00R2800.00R33600.005.60%

70% downpayment required to break even on cash flow and a 5.6% ROI if you pay in cash. Even less once rates and other expenses are taken into account.

A Reader's Request: Rent Vs. Buy

Reader IS asked me to do an ROI calculation of a property he is tracking. It's asking price is R740 000 and it rents for R4 700 with a monthly levy of R1 128 resulting in a net rental income of R3 572. With interest rates at 14.5% payments and returns will be as follows:













Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R9471.98R-5899.98R-70799.80
R74000R8524.79R-4952.79R-59433.42-80.32%
R148000R7577.59R-4005.59R-48067.04-32.48%
R222000R6630.39R-3058.39R-36700.66-16.53%
R296000R5683.19R-2111.19R-25334.28-8.56%
R370000R4735.99R-1163.99R-13967.90-3.78%
R444000R3788.79R-216.79R-2601.52-0.59%
R518000R2841.60R730.40R8764.861.69%
R592000R1894.40R1677.60R20131.243.40%
R666000R947.20R2624.80R31497.624.73%
R740000R0.00R3572.00R42864.005.79%


A 70% downpayment required to break even on rental income and sub 6% ROI when you pay in cash. Not the best. The levies are also quite high eating up a whopping 24% of the rental income. Take maintenance costs off and vacancy costs and the returns could be even less.

18 February 2008

Rent Vs Buy: Muizenberg

Here's a two bed/two bath apartment in Muizenberg for sale for R1 170 000 and that rents for R3 700. You don't even need me to run the number to see that the ROI if you bought this "investment" is going to be terrible. The levy is R563 a month so in actual fact the rental income is R3137 a month.

Here's the ROI table:












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R14975.97R-11838.97R-142067.69
R117000R13478.38R-10341.38R-124096.52-106.07%
R234000R11980.78R-8843.78R-106125.35-45.35%
R351000R10483.18R-7346.18R-88154.18-25.12%
R468000R8985.58R-5848.58R-70183.01-15.00%
R585000R7487.99R-4350.99R-52211.84-8.93%
R702000R5990.39R-2853.39R-34240.67-4.88%
R819000R4492.79R-1355.79R-16269.51-1.99%
R936000R2995.19R141.81R1701.660.18%
R1053000R1497.60R1639.40R19672.831.87%
R1170000R0.00R3137.00R37644.003.22%

Thats.... pretty bad. You need a 80% downpayment to break even and if you buy in cash you can look forward to a 3.22% return on investment, which is about 5% below inflation. I'll take two!

16 February 2008

Saturday Open Thread

Got anything you want to talk about that we haven't covered? This is your thread.

14 February 2008

Rent Vs. Buy: Rondebosch

This house in Rondebosch is on sale for R4 250 000 and is currently used as a digs for students. According to the ad it brings in a rental of "up to R27 400". So let's work out the return on investment if we were to buy this "income-generator":












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R54399.91R-26999.91R-323998.86
R425000R48959.91R-21559.91R-258718.97-60.88%
R850000R43519.92R-16119.92R-193439.09-22.76%
R1275000R38079.93R-10679.93R-128159.20-10.05%
R1700000R32639.94R-5239.94R-62879.32-3.70%
R2125000R27199.95R200.05R2400.570.11%
R2550000R21759.96R5640.04R67680.462.65%
R2975000R16319.97R11080.03R132960.344.47%
R3400000R10879.98R16520.02R198240.235.83%
R3825000R5439.99R21960.01R263520.116.89%
R4250000R0.00R27400.00R328800.007.74%
7.74% ROI if you buy the whole thing in cash. As we always note this is before maintenance, rates and vacancy costs. We should emphasize the maintenance part because this house is crammed full of students who are not exactly the easiest of tenants or known for their concern when it comes to property upkeep.

Although I like how the ad proclaims: ' DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS MONEY SPINNER', when it has a ROI 1.5% below inflation. A fixed deposit will earn 9.75% interest a year and is also less hassle than when you have to call out the steam cleaners to get beer out the passage carpet for the umpteenth time..

13 February 2008

Is The Sub-500K Market In Trouble?

Despite the troubles that are hitting the property industry, the banks have been adamant that because of high demand the low-end of the market (houses priced below R500 000) is still pretty buoyant. But have a look at this quote from Realestateweb:
John Loos, property strategist with FNB Home Loans, notes that the "lower end" of the market where properties cost about R500 000 is "still stronger" than higher up the property price scale, but this "could be changing".
'could be changing'? Now I don't work for a bank nor am I employed as a property strategist, but what new information or data does John Loos know about the sub-500k market that makes him say the strength in that market could be changing?

09 February 2008

Rent Vs Buy: Gardens

Here's a 3 bed apartment on sale for R1 500 000 and with a going rental of R6 700.













Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R19199.97R-12499.97R-149999.60
R150000R17279.97R-10579.97R-126959.64-84.64%
R300000R15359.97R-8659.97R-103919.68-34.64%
R450000R13439.98R-6739.98R-80879.72-17.97%
R600000R11519.98R-4819.98R-57839.76-9.64%
R750000R9599.98R-2899.98R-34799.80-4.64%
R900000R7679.99R-979.99R-11759.84-1.31%
R1050000R5759.99R940.01R11280.121.07%
R1200000R3839.99R2860.01R34320.082.86%
R1350000R1920.00R4780.00R57360.044.25%
R1500000R0.00R6700.00R80400.005.36%


Sub 6% return and that's before rates, maintenance and vacancy.

07 February 2008

Disa Park: Rent Vs Buy X 3

Here's an ad for three 'investment' properties in Disa Park in Vredehoek. I suspect they are the same apartments we've reported on before but these have rentals specified so we can do some ROI calculations.


As always these ROI's are all calculated before rates, maintenance and vacancy are included, meaning that the actual rate of return is probably lower than specified here.

The first apartment is a 50m^2 1 bed selling for R795 000 and which rents out for R4 000:












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R10175.98R-6175.98R-74111.79
R79500R9158.38R-5158.38R-61900.61-77.86%
R159000R8140.79R-4140.79R-49689.43-31.25%
R238500R7123.19R-3123.19R-37478.25-15.71%
R318000R6105.59R-2105.59R-25267.07-7.95%
R397500R5087.99R-1087.99R-13055.89-3.28%
R477000R4070.39R-70.39R-844.71-0.18%
R556500R3052.79R947.21R11366.462.04%
R636000R2035.20R1964.80R23577.643.71%
R715500R1017.60R2982.40R35788.825.00%
R795000R0.00R4000.00R48000.006.04%


The second apartment is a 75m^2 selling for R1 050 000 and renting for R5 000:












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R13439.98R-8439.98R-101279.72
R105000R12095.98R-7095.98R-85151.75-81.10%
R210000R10751.98R-5751.98R-69023.77-32.87%
R315000R9407.98R-4407.98R-52895.80-16.79%
R420000R8063.99R-3063.99R-36767.83-8.75%
R525000R6719.99R-1719.99R-20639.86-3.93%
R630000R5375.99R-375.99R-4511.89-0.72%
R735000R4031.99R968.01R11616.081.58%
R840000R2688.00R2312.00R27744.063.30%
R945000R1344.00R3656.00R43872.034.64%
R1050000R0.00R5000.00R60000.005.71%


The final apartment is a 3 bed 105m^2 apartment selling for R1 600 000 and renting for R8 500:












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R20479.96R-11979.96R-143759.57
R160000R18431.97R-9931.97R-119183.61-74.49%
R320000R16383.97R-7883.97R-94607.66-29.56%
R480000R14335.97R-5835.97R-70031.70-14.59%
R640000R12287.98R-3787.98R-45455.74-7.10%
R800000R10239.98R-1739.98R-20879.79-2.61%
R960000R8191.99R308.01R3696.170.39%
R1120000R6143.99R2356.01R28272.132.52%
R1280000R4095.99R4404.01R52848.094.13%
R1440000R2048.00R6452.00R77424.045.38%
R1600000R0.00R8500.00R102000.006.38%



All three have pretty bad ROI's with a maximum ROI spread from 5.71% to 6.38%. The suprising thing is the second apartment has the worst yield despite being the cheapest per m^2 at R14 000/m^2.

Considering that property prices are stagnant (0% price growth year on year according to Standard Bank) and that a decent fixed deposit or money market account gets you 9% interest you're better off just plonking your money in the bank. And it's a helluva lot easier than running after tenants all the time.

ABSA: 2008 Is Worst Property Market This Decade

Realestateweb reports that ABSA is calling 2008 the worst year for property in a decade. And the property downturn has not even started properly in SA. Prices are stagnating but they have not started the decline seen in the US and some Euro markets... yet.

04 February 2008

Four Seasons: Rent Vs. Rent

Two flats for rent in the Four Seasons in the Cape Town CBD:

1 Bedroom: R6 400 a month
2 Bed/2 Bath: R6 000 a month

It Won't Sell So Let's Increase The Price R5 000

Way back in October 2007 we reported on this flat in Strand which was counting on the 2010 World Cup to help it sell, despite the fact the property is at leat 40km from the stadium. Well 4 months later it still hasn't sold so I guess the logical thing to do is raise the price R5 000. Back in October the flat was renting for R1 700 a month but that's now up to R1 800 a month (a 2% less than inflation increase).

So if you bought the flat now for it's asking price and received the going rental your ROI would be:












Down PaymentMonthly PaymentCash flowAnnual IncomeROI
R0R5107.19R-3307.19R-39686.29
R39900R4596.47R-2796.47R-33557.66-84.10%
R79800R4085.75R-2285.75R-27429.03-34.37%
R119700R3575.03R-1775.03R-21300.41-17.79%
R159600R3064.31R-1264.31R-15171.78-9.51%
R199500R2553.60R-753.60R-9043.15-4.53%
R239400R2042.88R-242.88R-2914.52-1.22%
R279300R1532.16R267.84R3214.111.15%
R319200R1021.44R778.56R9342.742.93%
R359100R510.72R1289.28R15471.374.31%
R399000R0.00R1800.00R21600.005.41%


Well at least that 5.41% ROI is an improvement over the 5.16% ROI achieved in October...